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Assessing the hydrodynamic boundary conditions for risk analyses in coastal areas: a multivariate statistical approach based on Copula functions

Assessing the hydrodynamic boundary conditions for risk analyses in coastal areas: a multivariate statistical approach based on Copula functions
Assessing the hydrodynamic boundary conditions for risk analyses in coastal areas: a multivariate statistical approach based on Copula functions
This paper presents an advanced approach to statistically analyse storm surge events. In former studies the highest water level during a storm surge event usually was the only parameter that was used for the statistical assessment. This is not always sufficient, especially when statistically analysing storm surge scenarios for event-based risk analyses. Here, Archimedean Copula functions are applied and allow for the consideration of further important parameters in addition to the highest storm surge water levels. First, a bivariate model is presented and used to estimate exceedance probabilities of storm surges (for two tide gauges in the German Bight) by jointly analysing the important storm surge parameters "highest turning point" and "intensity". Second, another dimension is added and a trivariate fully nested Archimedean Copula model is applied to additionally incorporate the significant wave height as an important wave parameter. With the presented methodology, reliable and realistic exceedance probabilities are derived and can be considered (among others) for integrated flood risk analyses contributing to improve the overall results. It is highlighted that the concept of Copulas represents a promising alternative for facing multivariate problems in coastal engineering.
1684-9981
495-510
Wahl, T.
192e987e-1eac-4376-84da-a4c89ef91b47
Mudersbach, C.
63c8d100-297a-4bbc-866c-74554a8db664
Jensen, J.
ef7e5ff0-e225-4160-aed7-407c2d78a090
Wahl, T.
192e987e-1eac-4376-84da-a4c89ef91b47
Mudersbach, C.
63c8d100-297a-4bbc-866c-74554a8db664
Jensen, J.
ef7e5ff0-e225-4160-aed7-407c2d78a090

Wahl, T., Mudersbach, C. and Jensen, J. (2012) Assessing the hydrodynamic boundary conditions for risk analyses in coastal areas: a multivariate statistical approach based on Copula functions. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 12 (2), 495-510. (doi:10.5194/nhess-12-495-2012).

Record type: Article

Abstract

This paper presents an advanced approach to statistically analyse storm surge events. In former studies the highest water level during a storm surge event usually was the only parameter that was used for the statistical assessment. This is not always sufficient, especially when statistically analysing storm surge scenarios for event-based risk analyses. Here, Archimedean Copula functions are applied and allow for the consideration of further important parameters in addition to the highest storm surge water levels. First, a bivariate model is presented and used to estimate exceedance probabilities of storm surges (for two tide gauges in the German Bight) by jointly analysing the important storm surge parameters "highest turning point" and "intensity". Second, another dimension is added and a trivariate fully nested Archimedean Copula model is applied to additionally incorporate the significant wave height as an important wave parameter. With the presented methodology, reliable and realistic exceedance probabilities are derived and can be considered (among others) for integrated flood risk analyses contributing to improve the overall results. It is highlighted that the concept of Copulas represents a promising alternative for facing multivariate problems in coastal engineering.

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Accepted/In Press date: 11 January 2012
Published date: 29 February 2012
Organisations: Energy & Climate Change Group

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 393908
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/393908
ISSN: 1684-9981
PURE UUID: 45e93dd3-8a37-4ecc-b3e0-09c1dcf0fa15

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Date deposited: 09 May 2016 11:26
Last modified: 04 Nov 2019 19:51

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Contributors

Author: T. Wahl
Author: C. Mudersbach
Author: J. Jensen

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