StatRec - performance, validation and preservability of a static risk prediction instrument
StatRec - performance, validation and preservability of a static risk prediction instrument
StatRec is a prediction instrument for recidivism making use of only a limited number of static factors. In this paper, we discuss and update the StatRec scale for four-year reconviction and evaluate its predictive performance over several dimensions: time, region and non-random subsamples. Additionally, using criminal file data we investigate to what extend adding dynamic factors improves the predictive performance. The predictive performance of the scale proves to be relatively stable over time and comparable to the England and Wales’ OGRS-scales. The precision of the estimated probabilities is the only indicator that decreases slightly as time passes. Though the scale does not make use of dynamic and situational factors related to the risk of re-offending, criminal file analyses show that adding these enhance the predictive power only slightly. The scale could play a role in the validation of more specified dynamic risk instruments.
25-44
Tollenaar, N.
118ec671-6837-4547-a09c-55db75a36d27
Wartna, B.S.J.
1327b30a-7591-4d80-8931-24c0fdb10f85
Van Der Heijden, Peter
85157917-3b33-4683-81be-713f987fd612
Bogaerts, S.
210f6944-cdc0-42d4-be83-df0b51f59849
January 2016
Tollenaar, N.
118ec671-6837-4547-a09c-55db75a36d27
Wartna, B.S.J.
1327b30a-7591-4d80-8931-24c0fdb10f85
Van Der Heijden, Peter
85157917-3b33-4683-81be-713f987fd612
Bogaerts, S.
210f6944-cdc0-42d4-be83-df0b51f59849
Tollenaar, N., Wartna, B.S.J., Van Der Heijden, Peter and Bogaerts, S.
(2016)
StatRec - performance, validation and preservability of a static risk prediction instrument.
Bulletin de Méthodologie Sociologique, 129 (1), .
(doi:10.1177/0759106315615504).
Abstract
StatRec is a prediction instrument for recidivism making use of only a limited number of static factors. In this paper, we discuss and update the StatRec scale for four-year reconviction and evaluate its predictive performance over several dimensions: time, region and non-random subsamples. Additionally, using criminal file data we investigate to what extend adding dynamic factors improves the predictive performance. The predictive performance of the scale proves to be relatively stable over time and comparable to the England and Wales’ OGRS-scales. The precision of the estimated probabilities is the only indicator that decreases slightly as time passes. Though the scale does not make use of dynamic and situational factors related to the risk of re-offending, criminal file analyses show that adding these enhance the predictive power only slightly. The scale could play a role in the validation of more specified dynamic risk instruments.
Text
Statrec paper BMS R1.pdf
- Accepted Manuscript
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Accepted/In Press date: 1 September 2015
Published date: January 2016
Organisations:
Social Statistics & Demography
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 394561
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/394561
ISSN: 2070-2779
PURE UUID: 30e96c27-ac27-404e-a909-b2c73b077f14
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Date deposited: 17 May 2016 15:24
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:46
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Author:
N. Tollenaar
Author:
B.S.J. Wartna
Author:
S. Bogaerts
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