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Fishery management under multiple uncertainty

Fishery management under multiple uncertainty
Fishery management under multiple uncertainty
Among others who point to environmental variability and managerial uncertainty as causes of fishery collapse, Roughgarden and Smith (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 93 (1996) 5078) argue that three sources of uncertainty are important for fisheries management: variability in fish dynamics, inaccurate stock size estimates, and inaccurate implementation of harvest quotas.
We develop a bioeconomic model with these three sources of uncertainty, and solve for optimal escapement based on measurements of fish stock in a discrete-time model. Among other results we find: (1) when uncertainties are high, we generally reject the constant-escapement rule advocated in much of the existing literature, (2) inaccurate stock estimation affects policy in a fundamentally different way than the other sources of uncertainty, and (3) the optimal policy leads to significantly higher commercial profits and lower extinction risk than the optimal constant-escapement policy (by 42% and 56%, respectively).
fisheries management, uncertainty, risk, incomplete information, dynamic optimization, markovian process
300-318
Sethi, Gautam
589e5cfe-1e67-4d96-b457-e3742ee2bb92
Costello, Christopher
49a957b1-21b2-470f-864e-a85e6e9abdd5
Fisher, Anthony C.
549d479f-c5c5-4f96-add1-afccc07ee098
Hanemann, William Michael
fe3bd2a5-97cf-4db1-a42a-4e6ae4dc2e0b
Karp, Larry S.
aeaa7666-ca88-4f47-85c5-81043cdd8e8a
Sethi, Gautam
589e5cfe-1e67-4d96-b457-e3742ee2bb92
Costello, Christopher
49a957b1-21b2-470f-864e-a85e6e9abdd5
Fisher, Anthony C.
549d479f-c5c5-4f96-add1-afccc07ee098
Hanemann, William Michael
fe3bd2a5-97cf-4db1-a42a-4e6ae4dc2e0b
Karp, Larry S.
aeaa7666-ca88-4f47-85c5-81043cdd8e8a

Sethi, Gautam, Costello, Christopher, Fisher, Anthony C., Hanemann, William Michael and Karp, Larry S. (2005) Fishery management under multiple uncertainty. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 50 (2), 300-318. (doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2004.11.005).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Among others who point to environmental variability and managerial uncertainty as causes of fishery collapse, Roughgarden and Smith (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 93 (1996) 5078) argue that three sources of uncertainty are important for fisheries management: variability in fish dynamics, inaccurate stock size estimates, and inaccurate implementation of harvest quotas.
We develop a bioeconomic model with these three sources of uncertainty, and solve for optimal escapement based on measurements of fish stock in a discrete-time model. Among other results we find: (1) when uncertainties are high, we generally reject the constant-escapement rule advocated in much of the existing literature, (2) inaccurate stock estimation affects policy in a fundamentally different way than the other sources of uncertainty, and (3) the optimal policy leads to significantly higher commercial profits and lower extinction risk than the optimal constant-escapement policy (by 42% and 56%, respectively).

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More information

Published date: 2005
Keywords: fisheries management, uncertainty, risk, incomplete information, dynamic optimization, markovian process

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 39700
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/39700
PURE UUID: 766a1443-58cb-4fb7-9675-f2848deed86d

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Date deposited: 29 Jun 2006
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 08:16

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Contributors

Author: Gautam Sethi
Author: Christopher Costello
Author: Anthony C. Fisher
Author: William Michael Hanemann
Author: Larry S. Karp

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