Portraits of a future world: an empirical assessment of how different narrative, photographic and graphical representations of global population growth might influence perceived risk

Dawson, Ian (2016) Portraits of a future world: an empirical assessment of how different narrative, photographic and graphical representations of global population growth might influence perceived risk. 25th Society for Risk Analysis – Europe – Conference, Bath, United Kingdom. 20 - 22 Jun 2016.

Record type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)

Abstract

The global human population is forecast to increase by a further 3-4 billion people during this century and many scientists have expressed concern that this growth could play a key role in increasing the risk of certain adverse events (e.g., climate change, resource shortages, violent conflicts). Recent research shows that these concerns are mirrored in public risk perceptions and that individual willingness to adopt mitigation behaviors (e.g., reduce resource consumption) and preventative actions (e.g., support political action to limit growth) is positively correlated with the perceived risk of global population growth (GPG). In light of the potential importance of such behaviours/actions and their relationship to perceived risk, there is a need to better understand the factors that influence risk perceptions of GPG. To contribute to this important goal, I conducted three studies that examined how risk perceptions of GPG might be influenced by different textual-visual representations (akin to those used in popular media and internet articles) of the potential effects of GPG. Specifically, Study 1 examined the influence of narratives that describe the effects of GPG as being either predominantly positive or negative; Study 2 assessed the influence of photographic images that highlight either humanity’s positive or negative influence on the natural environment; Study 3 examined the influence of graphs that depict the future size of the global population using either low, median or high variant projections (or all three). Study 1 showed that a narrative which highlights the potential negative (cf. positive) consequences of GPG leads to higher perceived risk and a greater willingness to adopt mitigation behaviours but not a greater willingness to support preventative actions. Studies 2 and 3 revealed that neither photographic images nor graph content had a significant effect on the perceived risk of GPG or on the willingness to embrace mitigation behaviours or preventative actions. However, Study 3 revealed that individuals with higher graph literacy (the ability to understand graphically presented information) perceived GPG as a significantly higher risk and were significantly more willing to support preventative actions. Across all three studies, there was a significant positive correlation between perceived risk and both the willingness to embrace mitigation behaviours and willingness to support preventative actions. These findings provide novel insights into some of the factors that can influence public risk perceptions of (and professed behavioural responses to) GPG. I will discuss how the findings might be utilised (e.g., by policy makers) to nurture a balanced understanding of the potential effects of GPG and to promote engagement in managing the associated challenges

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