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Advances in mapping malaria for elimination: fine resolution modelling of Plasmodium falciparum incidence

Advances in mapping malaria for elimination: fine resolution modelling of Plasmodium falciparum incidence
Advances in mapping malaria for elimination: fine resolution modelling of Plasmodium falciparum incidence
The long-term goal of the global effort to tackle malaria is national and regional elimination and eventually eradication. Fine scale multi-temporal mapping in low malaria transmission settings remains a challenge and the World Health Organisation propose use of surveillance in elimination settings. Here, we show how malaria incidence can be modelled at a fine spatial and temporal resolution from health facility data to help focus surveillance and control to population not attending health facilities. Using Namibia as a case study, we predicted the incidence of malaria, via a Bayesian spatio-temporal model, at a fine spatial resolution from parasitologically confirmed malaria cases and incorporated metrics on healthcare use as well as measures of uncertainty associated with incidence predictions. We then combined the incidence estimates with population maps to estimate clinical burdens and show the benefits of such mapping to identifying areas and seasons that can be targeted for improved surveillance and interventions. Fine spatial resolution maps produced using this approach were then used to target resources to specific local populations, and to specific months of the season. This remote targeting can be especially effective where the population distribution is sparse and further surveillance can be limited to specific local areas.
1-13
Alegana, Victor A.
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Atkinson, Peter M.
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Lourenco, Christopher
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Ruktanonchai, Nick W.
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Bosco, Claudio
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Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, Elisabeth
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Didier, Bradley
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Pindolia, Deepa
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Le Menach, Arnaud
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Katokele, Stark
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Uusiku, Petrina
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Tatem, Andrew J.
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Alegana, Victor A.
6fdaa47e-c08c-48bc-b881-1dc7b89085e4
Atkinson, Peter M.
96e96579-56fe-424d-a21c-17b6eed13b0b
Lourenco, Christopher
2bc7b120-e9ef-4db0-919c-299fe60d51a3
Ruktanonchai, Nick W.
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Bosco, Claudio
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Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, Elisabeth
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Didier, Bradley
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Pindolia, Deepa
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Le Menach, Arnaud
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Katokele, Stark
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Uusiku, Petrina
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Tatem, Andrew J.
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Alegana, Victor A., Atkinson, Peter M., Lourenco, Christopher, Ruktanonchai, Nick W., Bosco, Claudio, Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, Elisabeth, Didier, Bradley, Pindolia, Deepa, Le Menach, Arnaud, Katokele, Stark, Uusiku, Petrina and Tatem, Andrew J. (2016) Advances in mapping malaria for elimination: fine resolution modelling of Plasmodium falciparum incidence. Scientific Reports, 6 (29628), 1-13. (doi:10.1038/srep29628).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The long-term goal of the global effort to tackle malaria is national and regional elimination and eventually eradication. Fine scale multi-temporal mapping in low malaria transmission settings remains a challenge and the World Health Organisation propose use of surveillance in elimination settings. Here, we show how malaria incidence can be modelled at a fine spatial and temporal resolution from health facility data to help focus surveillance and control to population not attending health facilities. Using Namibia as a case study, we predicted the incidence of malaria, via a Bayesian spatio-temporal model, at a fine spatial resolution from parasitologically confirmed malaria cases and incorporated metrics on healthcare use as well as measures of uncertainty associated with incidence predictions. We then combined the incidence estimates with population maps to estimate clinical burdens and show the benefits of such mapping to identifying areas and seasons that can be targeted for improved surveillance and interventions. Fine spatial resolution maps produced using this approach were then used to target resources to specific local populations, and to specific months of the season. This remote targeting can be especially effective where the population distribution is sparse and further surveillance can be limited to specific local areas.

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Accepted/In Press date: 22 June 2016
e-pub ahead of print date: 13 July 2016
Organisations: Global Env Change & Earth Observation, WorldPop, Geography & Environment, Population, Health & Wellbeing (PHeW)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 398354
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/398354
PURE UUID: 7f1d7345-a858-4c93-abda-1792b24fed2a
ORCID for Peter M. Atkinson: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-5489-6880
ORCID for Andrew J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 25 Jul 2016 08:45
Last modified: 18 May 2019 00:38

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Contributors

Author: Victor A. Alegana
Author: Peter M. Atkinson ORCID iD
Author: Nick W. Ruktanonchai
Author: Claudio Bosco
Author: Elisabeth Zu Erbach-Schoenberg
Author: Bradley Didier
Author: Deepa Pindolia
Author: Arnaud Le Menach
Author: Stark Katokele
Author: Petrina Uusiku
Author: Andrew J. Tatem ORCID iD

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