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Geospatial modeling of child mortality across 27 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

Geospatial modeling of child mortality across 27 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa
Geospatial modeling of child mortality across 27 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa
Preventable mortality of children has been targeted as one of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals for the 2015-30 period. Global decreases in child mortality
(4q1) have been seen, although sub-Saharan Africa remains an area of concern, with child mortality rates remaining high relative to global averages or even increasing in some cases. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa is highly heterogeneous. Thus, research that identifies primary risk factors and protective measures in the geographic context of sub-Saharan Africa is needed. In this study, household survey data collected by The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program aggregated at DHS sub-national area scale are used to evaluate the spatial distribution of child mortality (age 1 to 4) across 27 sub-Saharan Africa countries in relation to a number of demographic and health indicators collected in the DHS surveys. In addition, this report controls for spatial variation in potential environmental drivers of child mortality by modeling it against a suite of geospatial datasets. These datasets vary across the study area in an autoregressive spatial model that accounts for the spatial autocorrelation present in the data.

This study shows that socio-demographic factors such as birth interval, stunting, access to health facilities and literacy, along with geospatial factors such as prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria, variety of ethnic groups, mean temperature, and intensity of lights at night can explain up to 60% of the variance in child mortality across 255 DHS sub-national areas in the 27 countries. Additionally, three regions - Western, Central, and Eastern Africa - have markedly different mortality rates. By identifying the relative importance of policy-relevant socio-demographic and environmental factors, this study highlights priorities for research and programs targeting child mortality over the next decade.
13
ICF International
Pezzulo, Carla
876a5393-ffbd-479a-9edf-f72a59ca2cb5
Bird, Tomas
b491394a-2b91-42d5-8262-d1c0e9ff17cd
Utazi, Edson C.
e69ca81e-fb23-4bc1-99a5-25c9e0f4d6f9
Sorichetta, Alessandro
c80d941b-a3f5-4a6d-9a19-e3eeba84443c
Tatem, Andrew J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Yourkavitch, Jennifer
1f5085e3-3f39-428f-9ba0-99c38fd720f0
Burgert-Brucker, Clara R.
c98abed5-702b-4c14-a4f4-8c27cc36c21b
Pezzulo, Carla
876a5393-ffbd-479a-9edf-f72a59ca2cb5
Bird, Tomas
b491394a-2b91-42d5-8262-d1c0e9ff17cd
Utazi, Edson C.
e69ca81e-fb23-4bc1-99a5-25c9e0f4d6f9
Sorichetta, Alessandro
c80d941b-a3f5-4a6d-9a19-e3eeba84443c
Tatem, Andrew J.
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
Yourkavitch, Jennifer
1f5085e3-3f39-428f-9ba0-99c38fd720f0
Burgert-Brucker, Clara R.
c98abed5-702b-4c14-a4f4-8c27cc36c21b

Pezzulo, Carla, Bird, Tomas, Utazi, Edson C., Sorichetta, Alessandro, Tatem, Andrew J., Yourkavitch, Jennifer and Burgert-Brucker, Clara R. (2016) Geospatial modeling of child mortality across 27 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (DHS Spatial Analysis Reports, 13) Rockville, US. ICF International 104pp.

Record type: Monograph (Project Report)

Abstract

Preventable mortality of children has been targeted as one of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals for the 2015-30 period. Global decreases in child mortality
(4q1) have been seen, although sub-Saharan Africa remains an area of concern, with child mortality rates remaining high relative to global averages or even increasing in some cases. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa is highly heterogeneous. Thus, research that identifies primary risk factors and protective measures in the geographic context of sub-Saharan Africa is needed. In this study, household survey data collected by The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program aggregated at DHS sub-national area scale are used to evaluate the spatial distribution of child mortality (age 1 to 4) across 27 sub-Saharan Africa countries in relation to a number of demographic and health indicators collected in the DHS surveys. In addition, this report controls for spatial variation in potential environmental drivers of child mortality by modeling it against a suite of geospatial datasets. These datasets vary across the study area in an autoregressive spatial model that accounts for the spatial autocorrelation present in the data.

This study shows that socio-demographic factors such as birth interval, stunting, access to health facilities and literacy, along with geospatial factors such as prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria, variety of ethnic groups, mean temperature, and intensity of lights at night can explain up to 60% of the variance in child mortality across 255 DHS sub-national areas in the 27 countries. Additionally, three regions - Western, Central, and Eastern Africa - have markedly different mortality rates. By identifying the relative importance of policy-relevant socio-demographic and environmental factors, this study highlights priorities for research and programs targeting child mortality over the next decade.

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Published date: 31 August 2016
Organisations: WorldPop, Population, Health & Wellbeing (PHeW)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 400944
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/400944
PURE UUID: 886cf4c4-c16a-4c7e-8dad-25ec26d30f23
ORCID for Alessandro Sorichetta: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-3576-5826
ORCID for Andrew J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 30 Sep 2016 09:32
Last modified: 09 May 2019 00:30

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