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Underestimated risks of recurrent long-range ash dispersal from northern Pacific Arc volcanoes

Underestimated risks of recurrent long-range ash dispersal from northern Pacific Arc volcanoes
Underestimated risks of recurrent long-range ash dispersal from northern Pacific Arc volcanoes
Widespread ash dispersal poses a significant natural hazard to society, particularly in relation to disruption to aviation. Assessing the extent of the threat of far-travelled ash clouds on flight paths is substantially hindered by an incomplete volcanic history and an underestimation of the potential reach of distant eruptive centres. The risk of extensive ash clouds to aviation is thus poorly quantified. New evidence is presented of explosive Late Pleistocene eruptions in the Pacific Arc, currently undocumented in the proximal geological record, which dispersed ash up to 8000?km from source. Twelve microscopic ash deposits or cryptotephra, invisible to the naked eye, discovered within Greenland ice-cores, and ranging in age between 11.1 and 83.7 ka b2k, are compositionally matched to northern Pacific Arc sources including Japan, Kamchatka, Cascades and Alaska. Only two cryptotephra deposits are correlated to known high-magnitude eruptions (Towada-H, Japan, ca 15 ka BP and Mount St Helens Set M, ca 28 ka BP). For the remaining 10 deposits, there is no evidence of age- and compositionally-equivalent eruptive events in regional volcanic stratigraphies. This highlights the inherent problem of under-reporting eruptions and the dangers of underestimating the long-term risk of widespread ash dispersal for trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic flight routes
1-8
Bourne, Anna
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Abbott, P.M.
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Albert, P.G.
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Cook, E.
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Pearce, N.J.G.
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Ponomareva, V.
885ada7f-08cb-4a9d-b31f-c05c973b6620
Svensson, A.
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Davies, S.M.
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Bourne, Anna
ca184ead-1dc3-4b0f-8a01-cb427838d996
Abbott, P.M.
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Albert, P.G.
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Cook, E.
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Pearce, N.J.G.
473ba898-c543-4b4f-a4ce-ce1cf3416f0a
Ponomareva, V.
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Svensson, A.
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Davies, S.M.
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Bourne, Anna, Abbott, P.M., Albert, P.G., Cook, E., Pearce, N.J.G., Ponomareva, V., Svensson, A. and Davies, S.M. (2016) Underestimated risks of recurrent long-range ash dispersal from northern Pacific Arc volcanoes. Scientific Reports, 6 (29837), 1-8. (doi:10.1038/srep29837).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Widespread ash dispersal poses a significant natural hazard to society, particularly in relation to disruption to aviation. Assessing the extent of the threat of far-travelled ash clouds on flight paths is substantially hindered by an incomplete volcanic history and an underestimation of the potential reach of distant eruptive centres. The risk of extensive ash clouds to aviation is thus poorly quantified. New evidence is presented of explosive Late Pleistocene eruptions in the Pacific Arc, currently undocumented in the proximal geological record, which dispersed ash up to 8000?km from source. Twelve microscopic ash deposits or cryptotephra, invisible to the naked eye, discovered within Greenland ice-cores, and ranging in age between 11.1 and 83.7 ka b2k, are compositionally matched to northern Pacific Arc sources including Japan, Kamchatka, Cascades and Alaska. Only two cryptotephra deposits are correlated to known high-magnitude eruptions (Towada-H, Japan, ca 15 ka BP and Mount St Helens Set M, ca 28 ka BP). For the remaining 10 deposits, there is no evidence of age- and compositionally-equivalent eruptive events in regional volcanic stratigraphies. This highlights the inherent problem of under-reporting eruptions and the dangers of underestimating the long-term risk of widespread ash dispersal for trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic flight routes

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Accepted/In Press date: 24 June 2016
e-pub ahead of print date: 21 July 2016
Published date: 21 July 2016
Organisations: Palaeoenvironment Laboratory (PLUS)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 401625
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/401625
PURE UUID: 40d3bd8f-fb1d-4c34-a45e-63a665baa83e
ORCID for Anna Bourne: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-1506-6160

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Date deposited: 19 Oct 2016 08:05
Last modified: 06 Jun 2018 12:14

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Contributors

Author: Anna Bourne ORCID iD
Author: P.M. Abbott
Author: P.G. Albert
Author: E. Cook
Author: N.J.G. Pearce
Author: V. Ponomareva
Author: A. Svensson
Author: S.M. Davies

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