Twenty-one sources of error and bias in transport project appraisal
Twenty-one sources of error and bias in transport project appraisal
Twenty-one sources of error and bias in the appraisal of transport projects are identified. These relate to objectives, definitions, data, models and evaluation conventions. Objectives may be unclear, incompletely specified or inconsistent with appraisal criteria. Definitions of study areas and scheme options for testing may bias the outcome. There are multifarious sources of data and model error. Double counting, inappropriate values, and failure to balance quantified and non-quantified items can all affect the evaluation. We suggest that there is a systematic tendency to a mega-error—that of appraisal optimism. Three antidotes to this condition are briefly suggested.
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Mackie, Peter
446c175c-8297-4740-be25-be47bb88f8d8
Preston, John
ef81c42e-c896-4768-92d1-052662037f0b
January 1998
Mackie, Peter
446c175c-8297-4740-be25-be47bb88f8d8
Preston, John
ef81c42e-c896-4768-92d1-052662037f0b
Mackie, Peter and Preston, John
(1998)
Twenty-one sources of error and bias in transport project appraisal.
Transport Policy, 5 (1), .
(doi:10.1016/S0967-070X(98)00004-3).
Abstract
Twenty-one sources of error and bias in the appraisal of transport projects are identified. These relate to objectives, definitions, data, models and evaluation conventions. Objectives may be unclear, incompletely specified or inconsistent with appraisal criteria. Definitions of study areas and scheme options for testing may bias the outcome. There are multifarious sources of data and model error. Double counting, inappropriate values, and failure to balance quantified and non-quantified items can all affect the evaluation. We suggest that there is a systematic tendency to a mega-error—that of appraisal optimism. Three antidotes to this condition are briefly suggested.
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Published date: January 1998
Organisations:
Transportation Group
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Local EPrints ID: 403193
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/403193
ISSN: 0967-070X
PURE UUID: f6771078-05b9-4640-b36b-379154c242de
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Date deposited: 01 Dec 2016 16:55
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 03:48
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Peter Mackie
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