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Blue carbon stock of the Bangladesh Sundarban mangroves: what could be the scenario after a century?

Blue carbon stock of the Bangladesh Sundarban mangroves: what could be the scenario after a century?
Blue carbon stock of the Bangladesh Sundarban mangroves: what could be the scenario after a century?
The total blue carbon stock of the Bangladesh Sundarban mangroves was evaluated and the probable future status after a century was predicted based on the recent trend of changes in the last 30 years and implementing a hybrid model of Markov Chain and Cellular automata. At present 36.24 Tg C and 54.95 Tg C are stored in the above-ground and below-ground compartments respectively resulting in total blue carbon stock of 91.19 Tg C. According to the prediction 15.88 Tg C would be lost from this region by the year 2115. The low saline species composition classes dominated mainly by Heritiera spp. accounts for the major portion of the carbon sock at present (45.60 Tg C), while the highly saline regions stores only 14.90 Tg C. The prediction shows that after a hundred years almost 22.42 Tg C would be lost from the low saline regions accompanied by an increase of 8.20 Tg C in the high saline regions dominated mainly by Excoecaria sp. and Avicennia spp. The net carbon loss would be due to both mangrove area loss (~ 510 km2) and change in species composition leading to 58.28 Tg of potential CO2 emission within the year 2115.
0277-5212
1033-1045
Chanda, Abhra
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Mukhopadhyay, Anirban
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Ghosh, Tuhin
d660c7d5-91ab-4b2d-821f-140ea145d547
Akhand, Anirban
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Mondal, Parimal
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Ghosh, Subhajit
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Mukherjee, Sandip
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Wolf, Judith
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Lazar, Attila
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Rahman, Md. Munsur
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Salehin, Mashfiqus
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Chowdhury, S. M.
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Hazra, Sugata
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Chanda, Abhra
a0825e64-3d12-4e45-92fa-e93f9d2899e5
Mukhopadhyay, Anirban
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Ghosh, Tuhin
d660c7d5-91ab-4b2d-821f-140ea145d547
Akhand, Anirban
930c7942-136f-4d5e-91c1-0950a7dd9089
Mondal, Parimal
0cb73639-6cae-4290-b9e1-f57ac52b8ad8
Ghosh, Subhajit
ac1ec23d-642e-479d-b83c-9953a8a26295
Mukherjee, Sandip
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Wolf, Judith
4b74b130-746c-44a9-8ade-dfc9679fc5be
Lazar, Attila
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Rahman, Md. Munsur
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Salehin, Mashfiqus
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Chowdhury, S. M.
81cf0de4-95a3-4477-97dd-c2ec42590e8f
Hazra, Sugata
4da64f3d-2d1e-46b5-afa2-76ac5a0bb553

Chanda, Abhra, Mukhopadhyay, Anirban, Ghosh, Tuhin, Akhand, Anirban, Mondal, Parimal, Ghosh, Subhajit, Mukherjee, Sandip, Wolf, Judith, Lazar, Attila, Rahman, Md. Munsur, Salehin, Mashfiqus, Chowdhury, S. M. and Hazra, Sugata (2016) Blue carbon stock of the Bangladesh Sundarban mangroves: what could be the scenario after a century? Wetlands, 36 (6), 1033-1045. (doi:10.1007/s13157-016-0819-7).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The total blue carbon stock of the Bangladesh Sundarban mangroves was evaluated and the probable future status after a century was predicted based on the recent trend of changes in the last 30 years and implementing a hybrid model of Markov Chain and Cellular automata. At present 36.24 Tg C and 54.95 Tg C are stored in the above-ground and below-ground compartments respectively resulting in total blue carbon stock of 91.19 Tg C. According to the prediction 15.88 Tg C would be lost from this region by the year 2115. The low saline species composition classes dominated mainly by Heritiera spp. accounts for the major portion of the carbon sock at present (45.60 Tg C), while the highly saline regions stores only 14.90 Tg C. The prediction shows that after a hundred years almost 22.42 Tg C would be lost from the low saline regions accompanied by an increase of 8.20 Tg C in the high saline regions dominated mainly by Excoecaria sp. and Avicennia spp. The net carbon loss would be due to both mangrove area loss (~ 510 km2) and change in species composition leading to 58.28 Tg of potential CO2 emission within the year 2115.

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Accepted/In Press date: 2 September 2016
e-pub ahead of print date: 21 September 2016
Published date: December 2016
Organisations: Civil Maritime & Env. Eng & Sci Unit

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 404120
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/404120
ISSN: 0277-5212
PURE UUID: f11187fe-3c80-4c6c-b2cd-1c64648f56fb
ORCID for Attila Lazar: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-2033-2013

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Date deposited: 22 Dec 2016 11:25
Last modified: 06 Jun 2018 12:25

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Contributors

Author: Abhra Chanda
Author: Anirban Mukhopadhyay
Author: Tuhin Ghosh
Author: Anirban Akhand
Author: Parimal Mondal
Author: Subhajit Ghosh
Author: Sandip Mukherjee
Author: Judith Wolf
Author: Attila Lazar ORCID iD
Author: Md. Munsur Rahman
Author: Mashfiqus Salehin
Author: S. M. Chowdhury
Author: Sugata Hazra

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