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On the role of psychological heuristics in operational research; and a demonstration in military stability operations

On the role of psychological heuristics in operational research; and a demonstration in military stability operations
On the role of psychological heuristics in operational research; and a demonstration in military stability operations
Psychological heuristics are formal models for making decisions that (i) rely on core psychological capacities (e.g., recognizing patterns or recalling information from memory), (ii) do not necessarily use all available information, and process the information they use by simple computations (e.g., ordinal comparisons or un-weighted sums), and (iii) are easy to understand, apply and explain. The contribution of this article is fourfold: First, the conceptual foundation of the psychological heuristics research program is provided, along with a discussion of its relationship to soft and hard OR. Second, empirical evidence and theoretical analyses are presented on the conditions under which psychological heuristics perform on par with or even better than more complex standard models in decision problems such as multi-attribute choice, classification, and forecasting, and in domains as varied as health, economics and management. Third, we demonstrate the application of the psychological heuristics approach to the problem of reducing civilian casualties in military stability operations. Finally, we discuss the role that psychological heuristics can play in OR theory and practice.
0377-2217
1063-1073
Keller, Niklas
91a86565-f90e-476e-872d-1bad6c58a80a
Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos
b97c23d9-8b24-4225-8da4-be7ac2a14fba
Keller, Niklas
91a86565-f90e-476e-872d-1bad6c58a80a
Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos
b97c23d9-8b24-4225-8da4-be7ac2a14fba

Keller, Niklas and Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos (2016) On the role of psychological heuristics in operational research; and a demonstration in military stability operations. European Journal of Operational Research, 249 (3), 1063-1073. (doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2015.07.023).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Psychological heuristics are formal models for making decisions that (i) rely on core psychological capacities (e.g., recognizing patterns or recalling information from memory), (ii) do not necessarily use all available information, and process the information they use by simple computations (e.g., ordinal comparisons or un-weighted sums), and (iii) are easy to understand, apply and explain. The contribution of this article is fourfold: First, the conceptual foundation of the psychological heuristics research program is provided, along with a discussion of its relationship to soft and hard OR. Second, empirical evidence and theoretical analyses are presented on the conditions under which psychological heuristics perform on par with or even better than more complex standard models in decision problems such as multi-attribute choice, classification, and forecasting, and in domains as varied as health, economics and management. Third, we demonstrate the application of the psychological heuristics approach to the problem of reducing civilian casualties in military stability operations. Finally, we discuss the role that psychological heuristics can play in OR theory and practice.

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Accepted/In Press date: 8 July 2015
e-pub ahead of print date: 15 July 2015
Published date: 16 March 2016
Organisations: Decision Analytics & Risk

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Local EPrints ID: 404139
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/404139
ISSN: 0377-2217
PURE UUID: 317eb1c9-03d2-41d2-bbec-b305461b4353

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Date deposited: 21 Dec 2016 15:32
Last modified: 19 Jul 2019 19:31

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