Statistical analysis of the inherent variability in the
results of evolutionary debris models
Statistical analysis of the inherent variability in the
results of evolutionary debris models
Space debris simulations, e.g. those performed by the Inter-Agency Debris Coordination Committee (Liou et al., 2013), showed that the number of objects in orbit is likely to increase. This study analyses the uncertainty in the results of space debris simulations performed using semi-stochastic models that necessitate the use of Monte Carlo simulations, which are often used by the Inter-Agency Debris Coordination Committee, amongst other studies. Statistics of the possible numbers of objects in orbit and collisions over the next 200 years are generated for the “mitigation only” scenario using a sample of 25 000 Monte Carlo runs. Bootstraps on the mean, median, variance, skewness and kurtosis of these distributions are performed. It is shown that the distribution of the objects predicted to be on-orbit becomes log-normal as collisions occur, and that Monte Carlo samples larger than traditionally used are needed to capture the debris simulation uncertainty.
orbital debris, modelling, Monte Carlo, uncertainty, bootstrap
1-35
Lidtke, Aleksander
665c1a9b-a70d-4d73-bf48-4a6093d856b7
Lewis, Hugh
e9048cd8-c188-49cb-8e2a-45f6b316336a
Armellin, Roberto
61950d5c-3dcf-45f5-b391-7e8c6ffb8e6f
April 2017
Lidtke, Aleksander
665c1a9b-a70d-4d73-bf48-4a6093d856b7
Lewis, Hugh
e9048cd8-c188-49cb-8e2a-45f6b316336a
Armellin, Roberto
61950d5c-3dcf-45f5-b391-7e8c6ffb8e6f
Lidtke, Aleksander, Lewis, Hugh and Armellin, Roberto
(2017)
Statistical analysis of the inherent variability in the
results of evolutionary debris models.
Advances in Space Research, .
(doi:10.1016/j.asr.2017.01.004).
Abstract
Space debris simulations, e.g. those performed by the Inter-Agency Debris Coordination Committee (Liou et al., 2013), showed that the number of objects in orbit is likely to increase. This study analyses the uncertainty in the results of space debris simulations performed using semi-stochastic models that necessitate the use of Monte Carlo simulations, which are often used by the Inter-Agency Debris Coordination Committee, amongst other studies. Statistics of the possible numbers of objects in orbit and collisions over the next 200 years are generated for the “mitigation only” scenario using a sample of 25 000 Monte Carlo runs. Bootstraps on the mean, median, variance, skewness and kurtosis of these distributions are performed. It is shown that the distribution of the objects predicted to be on-orbit becomes log-normal as collisions occur, and that Monte Carlo samples larger than traditionally used are needed to capture the debris simulation uncertainty.
Text
Interpreting results of evolutionary debris models_2ndReSubmission.pdf
- Accepted Manuscript
More information
Accepted/In Press date: 4 January 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 17 January 2017
Published date: April 2017
Keywords:
orbital debris, modelling, Monte Carlo, uncertainty, bootstrap
Organisations:
Astronautics Group
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 404408
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/404408
ISSN: 0273-1177
PURE UUID: 80a63dd3-f3d0-4507-91cb-a7c1e702ae7b
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Date deposited: 09 Jan 2017 09:54
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 02:55
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