Spatial analysis and simulation of extreme coastal flooding scenarios for national-scale emergency planning
Spatial analysis and simulation of extreme coastal flooding scenarios for national-scale emergency planning
The UK has a long history of coastal flooding, driven by large-scale low-pressure weather systems which can result in flooding over large spatial areas. Traditional coastal flood risk analysis is, however, often undertaken at local scales and hence does not consider the likelihood of simultaneous flooding over larger areas. The flooding within the UK over the Winter of 2013/2014 was notable both for its long duration, lasting over two months, and its spatial extent, affecting many different areas of England and Wales. It is thus apparent that to plan and prepare for these types of extreme event it is necessary to consider the likelihood of flood events arising at different locations simultaneously (i.e. to consider the spatial dependence of extreme flood events). This paper describes the application of a state-of-the-art multivariate extreme value methodology to extreme sea levels and wave conditions around the coast of England and Wales. The output of the analysis comprises a synthetic set of extreme but plausible events that explicitly captures the dependence between sea conditions at different spatial locations around the coast. These simulated extreme events can be used for emergency management and advanced flood risk analysis.
Wyncoll, David
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Haigh, Ivan
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Gouldby, Ben
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Hames, Dominic
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Laeger, Stefan
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Wall, Andy
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Hawkes, Peter
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Hammond, Anthony
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Lang, M.
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Klijn, F.
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Samuels, P.
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1 January 2016
Wyncoll, David
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Haigh, Ivan
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Gouldby, Ben
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Hames, Dominic
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Laeger, Stefan
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Wall, Andy
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Hawkes, Peter
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Hammond, Anthony
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Lang, M.
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Klijn, F.
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Samuels, P.
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Wyncoll, David, Haigh, Ivan, Gouldby, Ben, Hames, Dominic, Laeger, Stefan, Wall, Andy, Hawkes, Peter and Hammond, Anthony
(2016)
Spatial analysis and simulation of extreme coastal flooding scenarios for national-scale emergency planning.
In,
Lang, M., Klijn, F. and Samuels, P.
(eds.)
3rd European Conference on Flood Risk Management (Floodrisk 2016).
London.
EDP Sciences.
(doi:10.1051/e3sconf/20160701001).
Record type:
Book Section
Abstract
The UK has a long history of coastal flooding, driven by large-scale low-pressure weather systems which can result in flooding over large spatial areas. Traditional coastal flood risk analysis is, however, often undertaken at local scales and hence does not consider the likelihood of simultaneous flooding over larger areas. The flooding within the UK over the Winter of 2013/2014 was notable both for its long duration, lasting over two months, and its spatial extent, affecting many different areas of England and Wales. It is thus apparent that to plan and prepare for these types of extreme event it is necessary to consider the likelihood of flood events arising at different locations simultaneously (i.e. to consider the spatial dependence of extreme flood events). This paper describes the application of a state-of-the-art multivariate extreme value methodology to extreme sea levels and wave conditions around the coast of England and Wales. The output of the analysis comprises a synthetic set of extreme but plausible events that explicitly captures the dependence between sea conditions at different spatial locations around the coast. These simulated extreme events can be used for emergency management and advanced flood risk analysis.
Text
e3sconf_flood2016_01001
- Version of Record
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Published date: 1 January 2016
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 406358
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/406358
PURE UUID: 2db0177a-259c-4f57-93b9-886cb51cb8ae
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Date deposited: 10 Mar 2017 10:45
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 03:51
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Contributors
Author:
David Wyncoll
Author:
Ben Gouldby
Author:
Dominic Hames
Author:
Stefan Laeger
Author:
Andy Wall
Author:
Peter Hawkes
Author:
Anthony Hammond
Editor:
M. Lang
Editor:
F. Klijn
Editor:
P. Samuels
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