Modeling water demand in droughts (in England & Wales)

Anderson, Ben and Nagarajan, Magesh (2016) Modeling water demand in droughts (in England & Wales). In Proceedings of the International Microsimulation Association European Conference 2016.

Abstract

Droughts have severe impacts on societies, economies, agriculture and ecosystems and forward planning is critical for managing the impacts of drought, since early warning enables stakeholders to curb demand and to effectively manage diminishing water resources. Improved forecasts on drought management (monthly to seasonal) and planning timescales (seasonal to decadal) would be exceptionally valuable for effective drought management and for minimising the negative impacts of droughts.
This paper presents an agent-based microsimulation model which has been developed to estimate the results of a range of scenarios of domestic demand under drought conditions. The model is intended to enable water resource management practitioners to assess the likely impact of potential interventions in particular catchment areas or water resource zones. The model is intended to be driven by seasonal forecasts of potential future hydrological droughts based on novel climate and groundwater models. However the current version of the model is driven by reconstructed seasonal drought histories for three UK catchment areas from 1994 to 2012. This provides a framework of five drought phases (Normal, Developing, Drought, Severe Drought, Recovering) which are mapped to policy driven interventions such as increased provision of water efficiency technologies, media messaging and ultimately temporary water use bans.
The model draws on a range of evidence from the water resource management, economic, behavioural and social science literatures to embed a ‘Water Cultures’ framework into a microsimulation model. The paper will present the model logic and the results of baseline projections under ‘all normal’ conditions together with the results of a sensitivity analysis. We will then present the results of running the model over the 1994-2012 reconstructed drought histories to demonstrate the potential value of the model in supporting cost-benefit analysis of specific interventions. We will conclude by discussing future directions for the work.

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Contributors

Author: Ben Anderson

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