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Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems

Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems
Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems
Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.
Henson, Stephanie A.
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Beaulieu, Claudie
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Ilyina, Tatiana
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John, Jasmin G.
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Long, Matthew
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Séférian, Roland
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Tjiputra, Jerry
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Sarmiento, Jorge L.
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Henson, Stephanie A.
d6532e17-a65b-4d7b-9ee3-755ecb565c19
Beaulieu, Claudie
13ae2c11-ebfe-48d9-bda9-122cd013c021
Ilyina, Tatiana
1f1d00ed-8ce3-4e6d-a893-42dc3b14c18d
John, Jasmin G.
474f5640-118e-43df-b1d2-647026cddd00
Long, Matthew
8f66557d-7a87-4c41-a128-6998fbaeb744
Séférian, Roland
07f0ed39-4caa-4f01-b77f-5d1a44cbf95f
Tjiputra, Jerry
2e95bc26-02b7-4478-b291-4ffc9e4a38fe
Sarmiento, Jorge L.
45f5964b-15e6-43e8-bdd4-8789e2eb87cb

Henson, Stephanie A., Beaulieu, Claudie, Ilyina, Tatiana, John, Jasmin G., Long, Matthew, Séférian, Roland, Tjiputra, Jerry and Sarmiento, Jorge L. (2017) Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems. Nature Communications, 8, [14682]. (doi:10.1038/ncomms14682).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.

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Accepted/In Press date: 20 January 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 7 March 2017
Published date: 7 March 2017
Organisations: Ocean Biochemistry & Ecosystems, Physical Oceanography, National Oceanography Centre

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 406641
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/406641
PURE UUID: 24db7ab0-ba30-40e4-86b0-851a03896c9d

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Date deposited: 18 Mar 2017 02:26
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 12:36

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Contributors

Author: Tatiana Ilyina
Author: Jasmin G. John
Author: Matthew Long
Author: Roland Séférian
Author: Jerry Tjiputra
Author: Jorge L. Sarmiento

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