Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models
Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models
Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Contrary to the long-term SPG warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection. Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models’ varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy.
Sgubin, Giovanni
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Swingedouw, Didier
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Drijfhout, Sybren
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13
Mary, Yannick
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Bennabi, Amine
bc3d4d1f-746f-48bc-8a42-8697d9d0b013
15 February 2017
Sgubin, Giovanni
1209a2a2-fa99-47ce-afae-bcc498ad66ae
Swingedouw, Didier
740cbc3a-9dc6-4457-99bb-870e5b2cd6dc
Drijfhout, Sybren
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13
Mary, Yannick
8900f5b6-be2f-42db-835d-f33b5ebebf18
Bennabi, Amine
bc3d4d1f-746f-48bc-8a42-8697d9d0b013
Sgubin, Giovanni, Swingedouw, Didier, Drijfhout, Sybren, Mary, Yannick and Bennabi, Amine
(2017)
Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models.
Nature Communications, 8, [14375].
(doi:10.1038/ncomms14375).
Abstract
Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Contrary to the long-term SPG warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection. Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models’ varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy.
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ncomms14375
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Accepted/In Press date: 21 December 2016
e-pub ahead of print date: 15 February 2017
Published date: 15 February 2017
Organisations:
Physical Oceanography, Paleooceanography & Palaeoclimate
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 406816
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/406816
PURE UUID: 979ee9cb-272b-420c-afec-ac723958386b
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Date deposited: 23 Mar 2017 02:03
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 04:12
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Author:
Giovanni Sgubin
Author:
Didier Swingedouw
Author:
Yannick Mary
Author:
Amine Bennabi
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