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A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass loss

A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass loss
A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass loss
The potential for break-up of Antarctic ice shelves by hydrofracturing and following ice cliff instability might be important for future ice dynamics. One recent study suggests that the Antarctic ice sheet could lose a lot more mass during the 21st century than previously thought. This increased mass-loss is found to strongly depend on the emission scenario and thereby on global temperature change. We investigate the impact of this new information on high-end global sea level rise projections by developing a probabilistic process-based method. It is shown that uncertainties in the projections increase when including the temperature dependence of Antarctic mass loss and the uncertainty in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensemble. Including these new uncertainties we provide probability density functions for the high-end distribution of total global mean sea level in 2100 conditional on emission scenario. These projections provide a probabilistic context to previous extreme sea level scenarios developed for adaptation purposes.
1748-9326
1-9
Le Bars, Dewi
cc94e5dc-ad4e-4afe-8c34-c481a2f6fda0
Drijfhout, Sybren
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13
de Vries, Hylke
ab19b1d5-679d-49d2-9e75-7fbdc44c31f2
Le Bars, Dewi
cc94e5dc-ad4e-4afe-8c34-c481a2f6fda0
Drijfhout, Sybren
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13
de Vries, Hylke
ab19b1d5-679d-49d2-9e75-7fbdc44c31f2

Le Bars, Dewi, Drijfhout, Sybren and de Vries, Hylke (2017) A high-end sea level rise probabilistic projection including rapid Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (4), 1-9, [044013]. (doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa6512).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The potential for break-up of Antarctic ice shelves by hydrofracturing and following ice cliff instability might be important for future ice dynamics. One recent study suggests that the Antarctic ice sheet could lose a lot more mass during the 21st century than previously thought. This increased mass-loss is found to strongly depend on the emission scenario and thereby on global temperature change. We investigate the impact of this new information on high-end global sea level rise projections by developing a probabilistic process-based method. It is shown that uncertainties in the projections increase when including the temperature dependence of Antarctic mass loss and the uncertainty in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensemble. Including these new uncertainties we provide probability density functions for the high-end distribution of total global mean sea level in 2100 conditional on emission scenario. These projections provide a probabilistic context to previous extreme sea level scenarios developed for adaptation purposes.

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Accepted/In Press date: 7 March 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 3 April 2017
Published date: 3 April 2017
Organisations: Paleooceanography & Palaeoclimate

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 407462
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/407462
ISSN: 1748-9326
PURE UUID: 0072af9a-081e-4a85-bc12-92cf7c438f31

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Date deposited: 12 Apr 2017 01:03
Last modified: 26 Apr 2022 18:46

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Contributors

Author: Dewi Le Bars
Author: Hylke de Vries

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