Decelerating Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation main cause of future West European summer circulation changes
Decelerating Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation main cause of future West European summer circulation changes
We use state-of-the-art global climate models and observations to show that the projected higher pressures over the British Isles due to global warming are part of an atmospheric response to the decelerating Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) causing a reduction in the associated northward heat transport, keeping the North Atlantic relatively cool. However, considerable inter-model differences in the projected weakening of the AMOC lead to a large spread in the projected wind changes. Hence, the uncertainty in the projected reduction of oceanic heat transport is a main source of uncertainty in projections of Western European climate change. Better-constrained projections of European summer climate thus rely heavily on a more realistic representation of ocean processes in climate models.
Haarsma, Rein
a1c40e8b-9dce-4e33-8610-7589461c5166
Selten, Frank
4104a5ed-6fe6-444d-8d23-25290516db8e
Drijfhout, Sybren
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13
8 September 2015
Haarsma, Rein
a1c40e8b-9dce-4e33-8610-7589461c5166
Selten, Frank
4104a5ed-6fe6-444d-8d23-25290516db8e
Drijfhout, Sybren
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13
Haarsma, Rein, Selten, Frank and Drijfhout, Sybren
(2015)
Decelerating Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation main cause of future West European summer circulation changes.
Environmental Research Letters, 10 (9), [094007].
(doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094007).
Abstract
We use state-of-the-art global climate models and observations to show that the projected higher pressures over the British Isles due to global warming are part of an atmospheric response to the decelerating Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) causing a reduction in the associated northward heat transport, keeping the North Atlantic relatively cool. However, considerable inter-model differences in the projected weakening of the AMOC lead to a large spread in the projected wind changes. Hence, the uncertainty in the projected reduction of oceanic heat transport is a main source of uncertainty in projections of Western European climate change. Better-constrained projections of European summer climate thus rely heavily on a more realistic representation of ocean processes in climate models.
Text
Haarsma_2015_Environ._Res._Lett._10_094007
- Version of Record
More information
Accepted/In Press date: 20 August 2015
Published date: 8 September 2015
Organisations:
Ocean and Earth Science, Paleooceanography & Palaeoclimate
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 407463
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/407463
ISSN: 1748-9326
PURE UUID: 938f2fb7-e739-461c-813c-04373a3c1a15
Catalogue record
Date deposited: 12 Apr 2017 01:04
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 04:12
Export record
Altmetrics
Contributors
Author:
Rein Haarsma
Author:
Frank Selten
Download statistics
Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.
View more statistics
