The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Decelerating Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation main cause of future West European summer circulation changes

Decelerating Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation main cause of future West European summer circulation changes
Decelerating Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation main cause of future West European summer circulation changes
We use state-of-the-art global climate models and observations to show that the projected higher pressures over the British Isles due to global warming are part of an atmospheric response to the decelerating Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) causing a reduction in the associated northward heat transport, keeping the North Atlantic relatively cool. However, considerable inter-model differences in the projected weakening of the AMOC lead to a large spread in the projected wind changes. Hence, the uncertainty in the projected reduction of oceanic heat transport is a main source of uncertainty in projections of Western European climate change. Better-constrained projections of European summer climate thus rely heavily on a more realistic representation of ocean processes in climate models.
1748-9326
Haarsma, Rein
a1c40e8b-9dce-4e33-8610-7589461c5166
Selten, Frank
4104a5ed-6fe6-444d-8d23-25290516db8e
Drijfhout, Sybren
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13
Haarsma, Rein
a1c40e8b-9dce-4e33-8610-7589461c5166
Selten, Frank
4104a5ed-6fe6-444d-8d23-25290516db8e
Drijfhout, Sybren
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13

Haarsma, Rein, Selten, Frank and Drijfhout, Sybren (2015) Decelerating Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation main cause of future West European summer circulation changes. Environmental Research Letters, 10 (9), [094007]. (doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094007).

Record type: Article

Abstract

We use state-of-the-art global climate models and observations to show that the projected higher pressures over the British Isles due to global warming are part of an atmospheric response to the decelerating Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) causing a reduction in the associated northward heat transport, keeping the North Atlantic relatively cool. However, considerable inter-model differences in the projected weakening of the AMOC lead to a large spread in the projected wind changes. Hence, the uncertainty in the projected reduction of oceanic heat transport is a main source of uncertainty in projections of Western European climate change. Better-constrained projections of European summer climate thus rely heavily on a more realistic representation of ocean processes in climate models.

Text
Haarsma_2015_Environ._Res._Lett._10_094007 - Version of Record
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
Download (2MB)

More information

Accepted/In Press date: 20 August 2015
Published date: 8 September 2015
Organisations: Ocean and Earth Science, Paleooceanography & Palaeoclimate

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 407463
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/407463
ISSN: 1748-9326
PURE UUID: 938f2fb7-e739-461c-813c-04373a3c1a15

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 12 Apr 2017 01:04
Last modified: 27 Apr 2022 06:27

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: Rein Haarsma
Author: Frank Selten

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×