Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways
Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways
The effects of sea level change become increasingly relevant for the Dutch coast. Therefore we construct two scenarios for regional sea-level change in the 21st century. They are designed to follow two temperature pathways, in which global mean temperature rises moderately ('G', +1.5 K in 2085) or more substantially ('W', +3.5 K in 2085). Contributions from all major processes leading to sea level rise are included (ocean expansion, glacier melt, ice-sheet changes, and landwater changes), except glacial isostatic adjustment and surface elevation changes. As input we use data from 42 coupled global climate models that contributed to CMIP5. The approach is consistent with the recent fifth assessment Report of IPCC, but provides an alternative viewpoint based on global temperature changes rather than RCPs. This makes them rather accessible and readily applicable to policy makers and the general public. We find a likely range for the G-scenario of +25–60 cm in 2085, and +45–80 cm for the W-scenario. These numbers have been rounded to 5 cm precision, to emphasise to any end-user of these scenarios that estimated lower and upper limits themselves are uncertain.
de Vries, Hylke
ab19b1d5-679d-49d2-9e75-7fbdc44c31f2
Katsman, C.A.
12afa51e-d40c-43ce-917f-1bc7f4c7d4fb
Drijfhout, Sybren
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13
14 November 2014
de Vries, Hylke
ab19b1d5-679d-49d2-9e75-7fbdc44c31f2
Katsman, C.A.
12afa51e-d40c-43ce-917f-1bc7f4c7d4fb
Drijfhout, Sybren
a5c76079-179b-490c-93fe-fc0391aacf13
de Vries, Hylke, Katsman, C.A. and Drijfhout, Sybren
(2014)
Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways.
Environmental Research Letters, 9 (11), [115007].
(doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115007).
Abstract
The effects of sea level change become increasingly relevant for the Dutch coast. Therefore we construct two scenarios for regional sea-level change in the 21st century. They are designed to follow two temperature pathways, in which global mean temperature rises moderately ('G', +1.5 K in 2085) or more substantially ('W', +3.5 K in 2085). Contributions from all major processes leading to sea level rise are included (ocean expansion, glacier melt, ice-sheet changes, and landwater changes), except glacial isostatic adjustment and surface elevation changes. As input we use data from 42 coupled global climate models that contributed to CMIP5. The approach is consistent with the recent fifth assessment Report of IPCC, but provides an alternative viewpoint based on global temperature changes rather than RCPs. This makes them rather accessible and readily applicable to policy makers and the general public. We find a likely range for the G-scenario of +25–60 cm in 2085, and +45–80 cm for the W-scenario. These numbers have been rounded to 5 cm precision, to emphasise to any end-user of these scenarios that estimated lower and upper limits themselves are uncertain.
Text
Vries_2014_Environ._Res._Lett._9_115007
- Version of Record
More information
Published date: 14 November 2014
Organisations:
Paleooceanography & Palaeoclimate
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 407498
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/407498
ISSN: 1748-9326
PURE UUID: de93d370-8867-4cfd-895d-266ae073cb6a
Catalogue record
Date deposited: 13 Apr 2017 01:02
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 04:12
Export record
Altmetrics
Contributors
Author:
Hylke de Vries
Author:
C.A. Katsman
Download statistics
Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.
View more statistics
