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Modelling daily soil salinity dynamics in response to agricultural and environmental changes in coastal Bangladesh

Modelling daily soil salinity dynamics in response to agricultural and environmental changes in coastal Bangladesh
Modelling daily soil salinity dynamics in response to agricultural and environmental changes in coastal Bangladesh
Understanding the dynamics of salt movement in the soil is a prerequisite for devising 23 appropriate management strategies for land productivity of coastal regions, especially low lying 24 delta regions which support many millions of farmers around the world. In this research, we 25 develop a novel holistic approach to simulate soil salinization comprising an emulator-based soil 26 salt and water balance calculated at daily time steps. The method is demonstrated for the 27 agriculture areas of Coastal Bangladesh. This shows that we can reproduce the dynamics of soil 28 salinity under multiple land uses, including rice crops, combined shrimp and rice farming, as 29 well as non-rice crops. The model also reproduced well the observed spatial soil salinity for the 30 year 2009. Using this approach, we have projected the soil salinity for three different climate 31 ensembles, including relative sea-level rise for the period 2041-2050. The results indicate an 32 increase in soil salinity in 21-44% of the simulated area. This can potentially cause significant 33 crop yield reductions, especially for vegetables and local rice varieties. The modelling approach 34 will enable planners and land use managers to investigate future trajectories of salinity impacts 35 on crop production, considering expected changes in relative sea level, groundwater pumping 36 and water quality in the rivers and estuary, and management responses to augment freshwater 37 supplies.
Emulator, flooding, irrigation, Climate change, integrated assessment, salinization, farming
495-514
Payo, Andres
ea965604-5d0d-472e-a8cd-25de95d111ff
Lazar, Attila
d7f835e7-1e3d-4742-b366-af19cf5fc881
Clarke, Derek
9746f367-1df2-4e0e-8d71-5ecfc9ddd000
Nicholls, Robert
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Bricheno, Lucy
18658fc8-88bc-4c08-8b28-8a3ac0e6aeb3
Mashfiqus, Salehin
9081b2bb-adfc-478b-b1e3-b60506a5eab3
Haque, Anisul
0d47d8f2-0195-4385-99d8-b91ec9387811
Payo, Andres
ea965604-5d0d-472e-a8cd-25de95d111ff
Lazar, Attila
d7f835e7-1e3d-4742-b366-af19cf5fc881
Clarke, Derek
9746f367-1df2-4e0e-8d71-5ecfc9ddd000
Nicholls, Robert
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Bricheno, Lucy
18658fc8-88bc-4c08-8b28-8a3ac0e6aeb3
Mashfiqus, Salehin
9081b2bb-adfc-478b-b1e3-b60506a5eab3
Haque, Anisul
0d47d8f2-0195-4385-99d8-b91ec9387811

Payo, Andres, Lazar, Attila, Clarke, Derek, Nicholls, Robert, Bricheno, Lucy, Mashfiqus, Salehin and Haque, Anisul (2017) Modelling daily soil salinity dynamics in response to agricultural and environmental changes in coastal Bangladesh. Earth's Future, 5 (5), 495-514. (doi:10.1002/2016EF000530).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Understanding the dynamics of salt movement in the soil is a prerequisite for devising 23 appropriate management strategies for land productivity of coastal regions, especially low lying 24 delta regions which support many millions of farmers around the world. In this research, we 25 develop a novel holistic approach to simulate soil salinization comprising an emulator-based soil 26 salt and water balance calculated at daily time steps. The method is demonstrated for the 27 agriculture areas of Coastal Bangladesh. This shows that we can reproduce the dynamics of soil 28 salinity under multiple land uses, including rice crops, combined shrimp and rice farming, as 29 well as non-rice crops. The model also reproduced well the observed spatial soil salinity for the 30 year 2009. Using this approach, we have projected the soil salinity for three different climate 31 ensembles, including relative sea-level rise for the period 2041-2050. The results indicate an 32 increase in soil salinity in 21-44% of the simulated area. This can potentially cause significant 33 crop yield reductions, especially for vegetables and local rice varieties. The modelling approach 34 will enable planners and land use managers to investigate future trajectories of salinity impacts 35 on crop production, considering expected changes in relative sea level, groundwater pumping 36 and water quality in the rivers and estuary, and management responses to augment freshwater 37 supplies.

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Accepted/In Press date: 28 March 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 18 May 2017
Published date: May 2017
Additional Information: Acknowledgments, Samples, and Data 746 The authors are grateful to Abdur Razzaque Akanda and Sujit Biswas (Bangladesh 747 Agricultural Research Institute) and Md. Anwarul Abedin and Abu Zofar Md. Moslehuddin 748 (Bangladesh Agriculture University) for providing observed crop properties and cropping 749 patterns, respectively. This work ‘Assessing Health, Livelihoods, Ecosystem Services and 750 Poverty Alleviation in Populous Deltas’ (NE-J002755-1)’ was funded with support from the 751 Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) programme. The ESPA programme is 752 funded by the Department for International Development (DFID), the Economic and Social 753 Research Council (ESRC) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). The support 754 of the UK British Council INSPIRE R-4 programme is appreciated. The authors also 755 acknowledge the use of the IRIDIS High Performance Computing Facility, and associated 756 support services at the University of Southampton, in the completion of this work.
Keywords: Emulator, flooding, irrigation, Climate change, integrated assessment, salinization, farming
Organisations: Energy & Climate Change Group, Civil Maritime & Env. Eng & Sci Unit, Southampton Marine & Maritime Institute, Water & Environmental Engineering Group

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 408328
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/408328
PURE UUID: 18ba8025-96f3-4a9a-97ee-aeda89c9b368
ORCID for Attila Lazar: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-2033-2013
ORCID for Derek Clarke: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-5433-5258
ORCID for Robert Nicholls: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109

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Date deposited: 19 May 2017 04:03
Last modified: 18 Feb 2021 17:21

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Contributors

Author: Andres Payo
Author: Attila Lazar ORCID iD
Author: Derek Clarke ORCID iD
Author: Robert Nicholls ORCID iD
Author: Lucy Bricheno
Author: Salehin Mashfiqus
Author: Anisul Haque

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