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Updating autonomous underwater vehicle risk based on the effectiveness of failure prevention and correction

Updating autonomous underwater vehicle risk based on the effectiveness of failure prevention and correction
Updating autonomous underwater vehicle risk based on the effectiveness of failure prevention and correction
Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) have proven to be feasible platforms for marine observations. Risk and reliability studies on the performance of these vehicles by different groups show a significant difference in reliability, with the observation that the outcomes depend on whether the vehicles are operated by developers or non-developers. We show that this difference in reliability is due to the failure prevention and correction procedures - risk mitigation - put in place by developers. However, no formalisation has been developed for updating the risk profile based on the expected effectiveness of the failure prevention and correction process. In this paper we present a generic Bayesian approach for updating the risk profile, based on the probability of failure prevention and correction and the number of subsequent deployments on which the failure does not occur. The approach, which applies whether the risk profile is captured in a parametric or nonparametric survival model, is applied to a real case study of the ISE Explorer AUV.
0739-0572
Brito, Mario
82e798e7-e032-4841-992e-81c6f13a9e6c
Griffiths, Gwyn
a0447dd5-c7cd-4bc9-b945-0da7ab236a08
Brito, Mario
82e798e7-e032-4841-992e-81c6f13a9e6c
Griffiths, Gwyn
a0447dd5-c7cd-4bc9-b945-0da7ab236a08

Brito, Mario and Griffiths, Gwyn (2018) Updating autonomous underwater vehicle risk based on the effectiveness of failure prevention and correction. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology. (doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-16-0252.1).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) have proven to be feasible platforms for marine observations. Risk and reliability studies on the performance of these vehicles by different groups show a significant difference in reliability, with the observation that the outcomes depend on whether the vehicles are operated by developers or non-developers. We show that this difference in reliability is due to the failure prevention and correction procedures - risk mitigation - put in place by developers. However, no formalisation has been developed for updating the risk profile based on the expected effectiveness of the failure prevention and correction process. In this paper we present a generic Bayesian approach for updating the risk profile, based on the probability of failure prevention and correction and the number of subsequent deployments on which the failure does not occur. The approach, which applies whether the risk profile is captured in a parametric or nonparametric survival model, is applied to a real case study of the ISE Explorer AUV.

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JTECH paper Brito and Griffiths 2017 - Accepted Manuscript
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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 24 January 2018
e-pub ahead of print date: 5 April 2018
Organisations: Decision Analytics & Risk, Southampton Marine & Maritime Institute

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 408599
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/408599
ISSN: 0739-0572
PURE UUID: 8dd9bbb8-fe99-481f-92df-c01aad58da8b

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Date deposited: 25 May 2017 04:02
Last modified: 17 Dec 2019 06:11

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