Choosing the Choice: Reflections on modelling decisions and behaviour in demographic agent-based models
Choosing the Choice: Reflections on modelling decisions and behaviour in demographic agent-based models
This paper investigates the problems associated with choosing appropriate models of choice for demographic agent-based models. In particular, the importance of context, time-preference and dealing with uncertainty in decision modelling are discussed, together with the heterogeneity between agents in their decision-making strategies. The paper concludes by advocating empirically driven, modular, and multi-model approaches to designing simulations of human decision-making, given the lack of a canonical strategy for dealing with any of these issues. Furthermore, it is suggested that an iterative process of data collection and simulation experiments, with the latter informing future empirical data collection, should form the basis of such an endeavour. The discussion is illustrated with reference to selected demographic agent-based models, in particular those relating to migration.
Agent Heterogeneity, Decision models, Demographic methods, Social simulation, Social influence, Uncertainty, Time
85-97
Gray, Jonathan
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Hilton, Jason
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Bijak, Jakub
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Gray, Jonathan
93c44ff0-29b8-48a1-be30-09be7d129ed1
Hilton, Jason
da31e515-1e34-4e9f-846d-633176bb3931
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Gray, Jonathan, Hilton, Jason and Bijak, Jakub
(2017)
Choosing the Choice: Reflections on modelling decisions and behaviour in demographic agent-based models.
Population Studies, 71, .
(doi:10.1080/00324728.2017.1350280).
Abstract
This paper investigates the problems associated with choosing appropriate models of choice for demographic agent-based models. In particular, the importance of context, time-preference and dealing with uncertainty in decision modelling are discussed, together with the heterogeneity between agents in their decision-making strategies. The paper concludes by advocating empirically driven, modular, and multi-model approaches to designing simulations of human decision-making, given the lack of a canonical strategy for dealing with any of these issues. Furthermore, it is suggested that an iterative process of data collection and simulation experiments, with the latter informing future empirical data collection, should form the basis of such an endeavour. The discussion is illustrated with reference to selected demographic agent-based models, in particular those relating to migration.
Text
Gray et al Choice
- Accepted Manuscript
More information
Accepted/In Press date: 10 May 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 24 October 2017
Keywords:
Agent Heterogeneity, Decision models, Demographic methods, Social simulation, Social influence, Uncertainty, Time
Organisations:
Social Statistics & Demography, Electronics & Computer Science, Social Sciences
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 410576
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/410576
ISSN: 0032-4728
PURE UUID: 132fe6d1-e214-462d-94b0-fa22722710df
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Date deposited: 09 Jun 2017 09:08
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 05:21
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Author:
Jonathan Gray
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