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Probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment for Eritrea

Probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment for Eritrea
Probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment for Eritrea
To date little is known about seismic hazard in Eritrea, despite its location in a volcanically and tectonically active region, and the gathering pace of major infrastructure projects. In response, we report the findings of a comprehensive probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment for Eritrea and adjacent areas. Seismic source and ground‐motion models are constructed separately; we use an adaptive spatiotemporal smoothing method to map expected patterns of seismicity. To construct a consistent earthquake catalog from different data sets, we use orthogonal regression to convert and unify different magnitude scales. A sensitivity analysis of the different input parameters helps constrain them and disaggregation of site‐specific hazard estimates yields insights into the relative contribution from seismic sources of different magnitudes and distances. The results highlight seismic hazard in proximity to the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Afar depression, and along the boundaries of the Danakil microplate. We estimate a 10% chance over 50 years of observing pseudospectral accelerations (PSAs) at 0.2 s exceeding 0.16g in the port city of Massawa (population ∼32,000) and the town of Bada (population ∼4000). For the capital, Asmara (population ∼520,000), we calculate a PSA of 0.11g at 0.2 s. Compared with previous studies, our results provide greater spatial resolution, use more recent ground‐motion models, and benefit from a smoothed seismicity method. Our aims are to stimulate further studies and contribute to the safe development of the region in light of its exposure to seismic hazards.
0037-1106
1478-1494
Goitom, Berhe
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Werner, Maximilian J.
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Goda, Katsuichiro
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Kendall, J.‐michael
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Hammond, James O. S.
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Ogubazghi, Ghebrebrhan
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Oppenheimer, Clive
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Helmstetter, Agnes
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Keir, Derek
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Illsley-Kemp, Finnigan
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Goitom, Berhe
2dcaea8e-cdd3-4b05-a4a0-04481da83881
Werner, Maximilian J.
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Goda, Katsuichiro
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Kendall, J.‐michael
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Hammond, James O. S.
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Ogubazghi, Ghebrebrhan
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Oppenheimer, Clive
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Helmstetter, Agnes
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Keir, Derek
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Illsley-Kemp, Finnigan
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Goitom, Berhe, Werner, Maximilian J., Goda, Katsuichiro, Kendall, J.‐michael, Hammond, James O. S., Ogubazghi, Ghebrebrhan, Oppenheimer, Clive, Helmstetter, Agnes, Keir, Derek and Illsley-Kemp, Finnigan (2017) Probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment for Eritrea. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 107 (3), 1478-1494. (doi:10.1785/0120160210).

Record type: Article

Abstract

To date little is known about seismic hazard in Eritrea, despite its location in a volcanically and tectonically active region, and the gathering pace of major infrastructure projects. In response, we report the findings of a comprehensive probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment for Eritrea and adjacent areas. Seismic source and ground‐motion models are constructed separately; we use an adaptive spatiotemporal smoothing method to map expected patterns of seismicity. To construct a consistent earthquake catalog from different data sets, we use orthogonal regression to convert and unify different magnitude scales. A sensitivity analysis of the different input parameters helps constrain them and disaggregation of site‐specific hazard estimates yields insights into the relative contribution from seismic sources of different magnitudes and distances. The results highlight seismic hazard in proximity to the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Afar depression, and along the boundaries of the Danakil microplate. We estimate a 10% chance over 50 years of observing pseudospectral accelerations (PSAs) at 0.2 s exceeding 0.16g in the port city of Massawa (population ∼32,000) and the town of Bada (population ∼4000). For the capital, Asmara (population ∼520,000), we calculate a PSA of 0.11g at 0.2 s. Compared with previous studies, our results provide greater spatial resolution, use more recent ground‐motion models, and benefit from a smoothed seismicity method. Our aims are to stimulate further studies and contribute to the safe development of the region in light of its exposure to seismic hazards.

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Accepted/In Press date: 17 March 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 21 March 2017
Published date: 1 June 2017
Organisations: Ocean and Earth Science, Geology & Geophysics

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 410723
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/410723
ISSN: 0037-1106
PURE UUID: 0b066186-6cb1-42dd-a815-e7b225a5d460
ORCID for Derek Keir: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-8787-8446
ORCID for Finnigan Illsley-Kemp: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7114-033X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 09 Jun 2017 09:27
Last modified: 28 Apr 2022 04:43

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Contributors

Author: Berhe Goitom
Author: Maximilian J. Werner
Author: Katsuichiro Goda
Author: J.‐michael Kendall
Author: James O. S. Hammond
Author: Ghebrebrhan Ogubazghi
Author: Clive Oppenheimer
Author: Agnes Helmstetter
Author: Derek Keir ORCID iD
Author: Finnigan Illsley-Kemp ORCID iD

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