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Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic

Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic
Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic
The 2013–2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic ‘gravity’ model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already sown the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective at curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing that these countries were susceptible to substantial outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal that this large epidemic was a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help to inform interventions in future epidemics.
Viral infection, Phylogenetics, Epidemiology, statistical methods
0028-0836
309-315
Dudas, Gytis
efce3b56-2cc3-4e86-828a-66f61ab35e8f
Carvalho, Luiz Max
1026b6dd-b40c-4633-82b9-0b636b42df98
Bedford, Trevor
fe50278d-93ce-4daa-a74d-c48f3a640088
Tatem, Andrew
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e
et al.
Dudas, Gytis
efce3b56-2cc3-4e86-828a-66f61ab35e8f
Carvalho, Luiz Max
1026b6dd-b40c-4633-82b9-0b636b42df98
Bedford, Trevor
fe50278d-93ce-4daa-a74d-c48f3a640088
Tatem, Andrew
6c6de104-a5f9-46e0-bb93-a1a7c980513e

Dudas, Gytis, Carvalho, Luiz Max, Bedford, Trevor and Tatem, Andrew , et al. (2017) Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic. Nature, 544, 309-315. (doi:10.1038/nature22040).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The 2013–2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic ‘gravity’ model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already sown the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective at curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing that these countries were susceptible to substantial outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal that this large epidemic was a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help to inform interventions in future epidemics.

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dudas_et_al_2017_preprint - Accepted Manuscript
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Accepted/In Press date: 2 March 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 12 April 2017
Published date: 20 April 2017
Keywords: Viral infection, Phylogenetics, Epidemiology, statistical methods
Organisations: WorldPop, Southampton Marine & Maritime Institute, Population, Health & Wellbeing (PHeW)

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 411060
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/411060
ISSN: 0028-0836
PURE UUID: b115cdd9-f5c5-45e6-bd39-7826aa73c660
ORCID for Andrew Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

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Date deposited: 13 Jun 2017 16:32
Last modified: 07 Oct 2020 04:41

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Contributors

Author: Gytis Dudas
Author: Luiz Max Carvalho
Author: Trevor Bedford
Author: Andrew Tatem ORCID iD
Corporate Author: et al.

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