The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Tilting towards the cosmopolitan axis? Political change in England and the 2017 general election

Tilting towards the cosmopolitan axis? Political change in England and the 2017 general election
Tilting towards the cosmopolitan axis? Political change in England and the 2017 general election
The general election of June 2017 revealed a continued tilting of the political axis in England that has been long in the making. This was not a Brexit ‘realignment’ – in that the vote is better seen as a symptom of a longer-term divide that is emerging between citizens residing in locations strongly connected to global growth and those who are not. In this analysis, we explore constituency-level patterns of voting in England between 2005 and 2017. Over this period, Labour's vote share has tended to rise in urban areas (i.e. major cities), with younger and more diverse and more educated populations often working in ‘cosmopolitan’ industries, whereas the Conservative vote has tended to increase in less densely populated towns and rural areas, with older and less diverse populations. Significantly, Labour has also increased its vote in constituencies with a higher share of ‘precariat’ and emerging service workers – somewhat at odds with characterisation of a party that has lost the ‘left behind’. To the extent that changes in electoral support for the Conservatives and Labour are linked to the Brexit vote, the relationship far predates the referendum vote and should be expected to continue to reshape British politics in future.
0032-3179
359-369
Jennings, William
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
Stoker, Gerard
209ba619-6a65-4bc1-9235-cba0d826bfd9
Jennings, William
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
Stoker, Gerard
209ba619-6a65-4bc1-9235-cba0d826bfd9

Jennings, William and Stoker, Gerard (2017) Tilting towards the cosmopolitan axis? Political change in England and the 2017 general election. The Political Quarterly, 88 (3), 359-369. (doi:10.1111/1467-923X.12403).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The general election of June 2017 revealed a continued tilting of the political axis in England that has been long in the making. This was not a Brexit ‘realignment’ – in that the vote is better seen as a symptom of a longer-term divide that is emerging between citizens residing in locations strongly connected to global growth and those who are not. In this analysis, we explore constituency-level patterns of voting in England between 2005 and 2017. Over this period, Labour's vote share has tended to rise in urban areas (i.e. major cities), with younger and more diverse and more educated populations often working in ‘cosmopolitan’ industries, whereas the Conservative vote has tended to increase in less densely populated towns and rural areas, with older and less diverse populations. Significantly, Labour has also increased its vote in constituencies with a higher share of ‘precariat’ and emerging service workers – somewhat at odds with characterisation of a party that has lost the ‘left behind’. To the extent that changes in electoral support for the Conservatives and Labour are linked to the Brexit vote, the relationship far predates the referendum vote and should be expected to continue to reshape British politics in future.

Text
Jennings Stoker PQ FINAL - Accepted Manuscript
Download (1MB)

More information

Accepted/In Press date: 29 June 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 25 July 2017
Organisations: Politics & International Relations

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 411956
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/411956
ISSN: 0032-3179
PURE UUID: 20a6ca1e-1b37-4655-81a4-6a8bbc6ec4d6
ORCID for William Jennings: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9007-8896
ORCID for Gerard Stoker: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-8172-3395

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 03 Jul 2017 16:31
Last modified: 05 Jul 2022 01:42

Export record

Altmetrics

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×