Expert predictions of the 2017 General Election
Expert predictions of the 2017 General Election
On behalf of the PSA, we carried out an expert survey of journalists, academics and pollsters concerning their predictions of the outcome of the June 2017 general election. The fieldwork was carried out online between 16th and 26th May 2017, and was by invitation only, distributed to a large mailing list of members of the PSA, journalists from the print and broadcast media, and pollsters from the major polling companies in the UK. Responses were anonymous, and our intention was not to provide a documentary record of the individual who got closest to the final result, but rather to discover what the election prediction of these experts were and whether they differed in meaningful or surprising ways. In the report that follows, we describe some of the technical details of the survey and then review the headline results. We are very grateful to all those who took the time to respond and made the not inconsiderable effort of predicting different aspects of the outcome of the
elections.
Political Studies Association
Fisher, Stephen D.
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Hanretty, Chris
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Jennings, William
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
2 June 2017
Fisher, Stephen D.
ae681ff6-29f6-4d14-83d9-fc272d7c3135
Hanretty, Chris
736a3bc4-e689-497e-9912-52a4cee35099
Jennings, William
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
Fisher, Stephen D., Hanretty, Chris and Jennings, William
(2017)
Expert predictions of the 2017 General Election
London.
Political Studies Association
11pp.
Record type:
Monograph
(Project Report)
Abstract
On behalf of the PSA, we carried out an expert survey of journalists, academics and pollsters concerning their predictions of the outcome of the June 2017 general election. The fieldwork was carried out online between 16th and 26th May 2017, and was by invitation only, distributed to a large mailing list of members of the PSA, journalists from the print and broadcast media, and pollsters from the major polling companies in the UK. Responses were anonymous, and our intention was not to provide a documentary record of the individual who got closest to the final result, but rather to discover what the election prediction of these experts were and whether they differed in meaningful or surprising ways. In the report that follows, we describe some of the technical details of the survey and then review the headline results. We are very grateful to all those who took the time to respond and made the not inconsiderable effort of predicting different aspects of the outcome of the
elections.
Text
PSA GE2017 Expert Survey
- Version of Record
More information
Published date: 2 June 2017
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 412271
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/412271
PURE UUID: f724b11c-7046-41cb-a182-4637e7dc5e68
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Date deposited: 17 Jul 2017 13:19
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 04:10
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Contributors
Author:
Stephen D. Fisher
Author:
Chris Hanretty
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