The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis
Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis
One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs.
Wahl, T.
6506794a-1f35-4803-b7f7-98702e57e667
Haigh, I.D.
945ff20a-589c-47b7-b06f-61804367eb2d
Nicholls, R.J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Arns, A.
ea550e18-2a11-4388-bba8-c9b827e2fbb1
Dangendorf, S.
113c456d-61d9-476f-9a5f-86e558ebc442
Hinkel, J.
757916c3-aa74-4fbf-b96d-ce86eeff03e3
Slangen, A.B.A.
15f5c5b5-7a91-4d72-95a8-c1192d8e9a45
Wahl, T.
6506794a-1f35-4803-b7f7-98702e57e667
Haigh, I.D.
945ff20a-589c-47b7-b06f-61804367eb2d
Nicholls, R.J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Arns, A.
ea550e18-2a11-4388-bba8-c9b827e2fbb1
Dangendorf, S.
113c456d-61d9-476f-9a5f-86e558ebc442
Hinkel, J.
757916c3-aa74-4fbf-b96d-ce86eeff03e3
Slangen, A.B.A.
15f5c5b5-7a91-4d72-95a8-c1192d8e9a45

Wahl, T., Haigh, I.D., Nicholls, R.J., Arns, A., Dangendorf, S., Hinkel, J. and Slangen, A.B.A. (2017) Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis. Nature Communications, 8, [16075]. (doi:10.1038/ncomms16075).

Record type: Article

Abstract

One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs.

Text
ncomms16075 - Version of Record
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
Download (2MB)

More information

Accepted/In Press date: 25 May 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 7 July 2017

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 412524
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/412524
PURE UUID: 5ef8f770-9d1e-4484-8dc5-3f3a751ec5f6
ORCID for R.J. Nicholls: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 20 Jul 2017 16:30
Last modified: 18 Feb 2021 17:02

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: T. Wahl
Author: I.D. Haigh
Author: R.J. Nicholls ORCID iD
Author: A. Arns
Author: S. Dangendorf
Author: J. Hinkel
Author: A.B.A. Slangen

University divisions

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×