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Estimating scenarios for domestic water demand under drought conditions in England and Wales

Estimating scenarios for domestic water demand under drought conditions in England and Wales
Estimating scenarios for domestic water demand under drought conditions in England and Wales
This paper presents preliminary results from the development of IMPETUS model, a domestic water demand microsimulation model which was developed to estimate the results of a range of scenarios of domestic demand under drought conditions. The model is intended to enable water resource management practitioners to assess the likely impact of potential interventions in particular catchment areas. It has been designed to be driven by seasonal catchment level forecasts of potential hydrological droughts based on innovative climate and groundwater models. The current version of the model is driven by reconstructed historical drought data for the Colne catchment in the East of England from 1995 to 2014. This provides a framework of five drought phases (Normal, Developing, Drought, Severe and Recovering) which are mapped to policy driven interventions such as increased provision of water efficiency technologies and temporary water-use bans. The model uses UK Census 2011 data to develop a synthetic household population that matches the socio-demographics of the catchment and it microsimulates (at the household level) the consequences of water efficiency interventions retrospectively (1995-2014). Demand estimates for reconstructed drought histories are presented to demonstrate the potential value of the model in supporting cost-benefit analysis of specific interventions. We conclude by discussing future directions for the work.
Climate change, Domestic water demand, Drought-End uses, microsimulation
Anderson, Benjamin
01e98bbd-b402-48b0-b83e-142341a39b2d
Manouseli, Despoina
e6c46dbb-864f-499e-b416-6ce4b907fd1f
Nagarajan, Magesh
abb55302-2d3e-4d39-8a77-5bf62da800dc
Anderson, Benjamin
01e98bbd-b402-48b0-b83e-142341a39b2d
Manouseli, Despoina
e6c46dbb-864f-499e-b416-6ce4b907fd1f
Nagarajan, Magesh
abb55302-2d3e-4d39-8a77-5bf62da800dc

Anderson, Benjamin, Manouseli, Despoina and Nagarajan, Magesh (2017) Estimating scenarios for domestic water demand under drought conditions in England and Wales At International Water Association (IWA) Efficient Conference 2017, Bath, United Kingdom. 17 - 19 Jul 2017. 9 pp.

Record type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)

Abstract

This paper presents preliminary results from the development of IMPETUS model, a domestic water demand microsimulation model which was developed to estimate the results of a range of scenarios of domestic demand under drought conditions. The model is intended to enable water resource management practitioners to assess the likely impact of potential interventions in particular catchment areas. It has been designed to be driven by seasonal catchment level forecasts of potential hydrological droughts based on innovative climate and groundwater models. The current version of the model is driven by reconstructed historical drought data for the Colne catchment in the East of England from 1995 to 2014. This provides a framework of five drought phases (Normal, Developing, Drought, Severe and Recovering) which are mapped to policy driven interventions such as increased provision of water efficiency technologies and temporary water-use bans. The model uses UK Census 2011 data to develop a synthetic household population that matches the socio-demographics of the catchment and it microsimulates (at the household level) the consequences of water efficiency interventions retrospectively (1995-2014). Demand estimates for reconstructed drought histories are presented to demonstrate the potential value of the model in supporting cost-benefit analysis of specific interventions. We conclude by discussing future directions for the work.

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More information

Published date: 18 July 2017
Additional Information: Related Publications: Manouseli, D., Anderson, B., & Nagarajan, M. (2017). Modelling domestic water demand during droughts in temperate climates: Evidence to Date. Water Resources Management. Anderson, B., & Nagarajan, M. (2016). Modeling water demand in droughts (in England & Wales). In Proceedings of the International Microsimulation Association European Conference 2016. Budapest.
Venue - Dates: International Water Association (IWA) Efficient Conference 2017, Bath, United Kingdom, 2017-07-17 - 2017-07-19
Keywords: Climate change, Domestic water demand, Drought-End uses, microsimulation

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 412595
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/412595
PURE UUID: c93e814b-f597-4337-8666-1be2b701bad2
ORCID for Benjamin Anderson: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-2092-4406

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 24 Jul 2017 16:32
Last modified: 28 Jul 2017 16:30

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Contributors

Author: Despoina Manouseli
Author: Magesh Nagarajan

University divisions

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