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Opinion polling and vote

Opinion polling and vote
Opinion polling and vote
Opinion polls are central to the study of electoral politics. With modern election polling dating back to the 1936 US presidential election, and proto-straw polls going back as far as the 1824 presidential election, polls have long been employed to gauge the popularity of different political competitors and, for as long as they have been available, researchers have used them to make predictions about future election results (Smith, 1990; Bean, 1948). Research on the links between opinion polls and election outcomes took off in the 1970s and early 1980s, as a cluster of (mostly) American researchers analysed these relationships, primarily in the context of US presidential elections (Campbell, 2008). The field has evolved rapidly since then, as polls have proliferated and analysis tools have grown ever more sophisticated. Opinion poll-based election analysis and forecasting is now a global enterprise, and often one with an unusually high public profile – poll analysis and election forecasts by academics and data journalists are now widely reported and discussed in election campaigns. This chapter reviews research on the relationships between opinion polls and election outcomes, and some of the election forecasting techniques built on this relationship.
Voting, opinion polls, survey research, Forecasting, elections
787-812
SAGE Publications
Ford, Robert
f2f320f9-15df-4a16-ab41-505f831a5ed1
Wlezien, Christopher
e5c172ce-90fc-4bb3-989f-f11e4acb7e53
Pickup, Mark
9f23d950-f879-448e-b7a6-4b7f55ebe999
Jennings, William
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
Arzheimer, Kai
Evans, Jocelyn
Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
Ford, Robert
f2f320f9-15df-4a16-ab41-505f831a5ed1
Wlezien, Christopher
e5c172ce-90fc-4bb3-989f-f11e4acb7e53
Pickup, Mark
9f23d950-f879-448e-b7a6-4b7f55ebe999
Jennings, William
2ab3f11c-eb7f-44c6-9ef2-3180c1a954f7
Arzheimer, Kai
Evans, Jocelyn
Lewis-Beck, Michael S.

Ford, Robert, Wlezien, Christopher, Pickup, Mark and Jennings, William (2017) Opinion polling and vote. In, Arzheimer, Kai, Evans, Jocelyn and Lewis-Beck, Michael S. (eds.) The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour. SAGE Publications, pp. 787-812.

Record type: Book Section

Abstract

Opinion polls are central to the study of electoral politics. With modern election polling dating back to the 1936 US presidential election, and proto-straw polls going back as far as the 1824 presidential election, polls have long been employed to gauge the popularity of different political competitors and, for as long as they have been available, researchers have used them to make predictions about future election results (Smith, 1990; Bean, 1948). Research on the links between opinion polls and election outcomes took off in the 1970s and early 1980s, as a cluster of (mostly) American researchers analysed these relationships, primarily in the context of US presidential elections (Campbell, 2008). The field has evolved rapidly since then, as polls have proliferated and analysis tools have grown ever more sophisticated. Opinion poll-based election analysis and forecasting is now a global enterprise, and often one with an unusually high public profile – poll analysis and election forecasts by academics and data journalists are now widely reported and discussed in election campaigns. This chapter reviews research on the relationships between opinion polls and election outcomes, and some of the election forecasting techniques built on this relationship.

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More information

Published date: May 2017
Keywords: Voting, opinion polls, survey research, Forecasting, elections

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 412859
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/412859
PURE UUID: 87386a00-e21c-4e6f-9b7f-02a4c144a33a
ORCID for William Jennings: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9007-8896

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Date deposited: 03 Aug 2017 16:30
Last modified: 12 Dec 2021 03:53

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Contributors

Author: Robert Ford
Author: Christopher Wlezien
Author: Mark Pickup
Editor: Kai Arzheimer
Editor: Jocelyn Evans
Editor: Michael S. Lewis-Beck

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