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Self-induced collision risk analysis for large constellations

Self-induced collision risk analysis for large constellations
Self-induced collision risk analysis for large constellations
Large constellations of communications satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) can provide considerable benefits due to the global coverage and low latency. However, they also represent a possible risk to other space users and to the long-term health of the space environment, due to the increase in associated space traffic and if appropriate debris mitigation measures are not implemented. An assessment of the potential impact of large constellations on the space debris environment has been performed. This paper describes the analysis of long-term projections incorporating a large constellation made using evolutionary codes, with a particular focus on the detected “self-induced” conjunctions between constellation satellites and the reliability of the collision prediction method. The results show that with a sufficient number of Monte Carlo runs, the collision algorithm is able to compute reliable estimates of the constellation self-induced collision probability.
European Space Agency
Lewis, Hugh
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Radtke, Jonas
aaac933e-23f1-404e-9f1a-b330286868b3
Beck, James
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Bastida Virgili, Benjamin
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Krag, Holger
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Lewis, Hugh
e9048cd8-c188-49cb-8e2a-45f6b316336a
Radtke, Jonas
aaac933e-23f1-404e-9f1a-b330286868b3
Beck, James
39e7ab7e-ec7a-42e9-8b23-061084324bee
Bastida Virgili, Benjamin
dd54200b-196a-4f15-a7c3-216fb1f71f58
Krag, Holger
ff60e577-d08a-4f94-a426-6358598ae4ad

Lewis, Hugh, Radtke, Jonas, Beck, James, Bastida Virgili, Benjamin and Krag, Holger (2017) Self-induced collision risk analysis for large constellations. In Proceedings of the 7th European Conference on Space Debris. vol. 7, European Space Agency..

Record type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)

Abstract

Large constellations of communications satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) can provide considerable benefits due to the global coverage and low latency. However, they also represent a possible risk to other space users and to the long-term health of the space environment, due to the increase in associated space traffic and if appropriate debris mitigation measures are not implemented. An assessment of the potential impact of large constellations on the space debris environment has been performed. This paper describes the analysis of long-term projections incorporating a large constellation made using evolutionary codes, with a particular focus on the detected “self-induced” conjunctions between constellation satellites and the reliability of the collision prediction method. The results show that with a sufficient number of Monte Carlo runs, the collision algorithm is able to compute reliable estimates of the constellation self-induced collision probability.

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HG_LEWIS_ET_AL_2017-EnvModelingAndPrediction-LargeConst
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Published date: 2017

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 414287
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/414287
PURE UUID: b19f5f18-83a6-452b-b536-f10524f505e3
ORCID for Hugh Lewis: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-3946-8757

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Date deposited: 25 Sep 2017 16:31
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 02:55

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Contributors

Author: Hugh Lewis ORCID iD
Author: Jonas Radtke
Author: James Beck
Author: Benjamin Bastida Virgili
Author: Holger Krag

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