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Comparing climate sensitivity, past and present

Comparing climate sensitivity, past and present
Comparing climate sensitivity, past and present
Climate sensitivity represents the global mean temperature change caused by changes in the radiative balance of climate; it is studied for both present/future (actuo) and past (paleo) climate variations, with the former based on instrumental records and/or various types of model simulations. Paleo-estimates are often considered informative for assessments of actuo-climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, but this utility remains debated because of concerns about the impacts of uncertainties, assumptions, and incomplete knowledge about controlling mechanisms in the dynamic climate system, with its multiple interacting feedbacks and their potential dependence on the climate background state. This is exacerbated by the need to assess actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity over different timescales, with different drivers, and with different (data and/or model) limitations. Here, we visualize these impacts with idealized representations that graphically illustrate the nature of time-dependent actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity estimates, evaluating the strengths, weaknesses, agreements, and differences of the two approaches. We also highlight priorities for future research to improve the use of paleo-estimates in evaluations of current climate change.
1941-1405
261-288
Rohling, Eelco J.
a2a27ef2-fcce-4c71-907b-e692b5ecc685
Marino, Gianluca
40d6f3f2-0905-4c0f-8eb9-6d577b2833bb
Foster, Gavin L.
fbaa7255-7267-4443-a55e-e2a791213022
Goodwin, Philip A.
87dbb154-5c39-473a-8121-c794487ee1fd
Von der Heydt, Anna S.
f4deaa04-7489-4064-ab4a-dd2e92bd8297
Köhler, Peter
16eab746-0fd7-4c44-84df-543b6efc8ba4
Rohling, Eelco J.
a2a27ef2-fcce-4c71-907b-e692b5ecc685
Marino, Gianluca
40d6f3f2-0905-4c0f-8eb9-6d577b2833bb
Foster, Gavin L.
fbaa7255-7267-4443-a55e-e2a791213022
Goodwin, Philip A.
87dbb154-5c39-473a-8121-c794487ee1fd
Von der Heydt, Anna S.
f4deaa04-7489-4064-ab4a-dd2e92bd8297
Köhler, Peter
16eab746-0fd7-4c44-84df-543b6efc8ba4

Rohling, Eelco J., Marino, Gianluca, Foster, Gavin L., Goodwin, Philip A., Von der Heydt, Anna S. and Köhler, Peter (2018) Comparing climate sensitivity, past and present. Annual Review of Marine Science, 10, 261-288. (doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-121916-063242).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Climate sensitivity represents the global mean temperature change caused by changes in the radiative balance of climate; it is studied for both present/future (actuo) and past (paleo) climate variations, with the former based on instrumental records and/or various types of model simulations. Paleo-estimates are often considered informative for assessments of actuo-climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, but this utility remains debated because of concerns about the impacts of uncertainties, assumptions, and incomplete knowledge about controlling mechanisms in the dynamic climate system, with its multiple interacting feedbacks and their potential dependence on the climate background state. This is exacerbated by the need to assess actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity over different timescales, with different drivers, and with different (data and/or model) limitations. Here, we visualize these impacts with idealized representations that graphically illustrate the nature of time-dependent actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity estimates, evaluating the strengths, weaknesses, agreements, and differences of the two approaches. We also highlight priorities for future research to improve the use of paleo-estimates in evaluations of current climate change.

Text ROHLING et al Ann Rev Mar Sci-2017 - Accepted Manuscript
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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 31 July 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 22 September 2017
Published date: January 2018

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 414352
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/414352
ISSN: 1941-1405
PURE UUID: 2fa81c6f-d9a3-43cb-9a36-9682320d3bfb
ORCID for Eelco J. Rohling: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-5349-2158

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Date deposited: 27 Sep 2017 16:30
Last modified: 06 Jun 2018 13:06

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Contributors

Author: Gianluca Marino
Author: Gavin L. Foster
Author: Anna S. Von der Heydt
Author: Peter Köhler

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