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A blinded determination of H0 from low-redshift Type Ia supernovae, calibrated by Cepheid variables

A blinded determination of H0 from low-redshift Type Ia supernovae, calibrated by Cepheid variables
A blinded determination of H0 from low-redshift Type Ia supernovae, calibrated by Cepheid variables
Presently, a >3σ tension exists between values of the Hubble constant H0 derived from analysis of fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background by Planck, and local measurements of the expansion using calibrators of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). We perform a blinded re-analysis of Riess et al. (2011) to measure H0 from low-redshift SNe Ia, calibrated by Cepheid variables and geometric distances including to NGC 4258. This paper is a demonstration of techniques to be applied to the Riess et al. (2016) data. Our end-to-end analysis starts from available Harvard -Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA3) and Lick Observatory Supernova Search (LOSS) photometries, providing an independent validation of Riess et al. (2011). We obscure the value of H0 throughout our analysis and the first stage of the referee process, because calibration of SNe Ia requires a series of often subtle choices, and the potential for results to be affected by human bias is significant. Our analysis departs from that of Riess et al. (2011) by incorporating the covariance matrix method adopted in Supernova Legacy Survey and Joint Lightcurve Analysis to quantify SN Ia systematics, and by including a simultaneous fit of all SN Ia and Cepheid data. We find H 0 =72.5±3.1(stat)±0.77(sys) H0=72.5±3.1(stat)±0.77(sys) km s−1 Mpc−1with a three-galaxy (NGC 4258+LMC+MW) anchor. The relative uncertainties are 4.3 per cent statistical, 1.1 per cent systematic, and 4.4 per cent total, larger than in Riess et al. (2011) (3.3 per cent total) and the Efstathiou (2014) re-analysis (3.4 per cent total). Our error budget for H0 is dominated by statistical errors due to the small size of the SN sample, whilst the systematic contribution is dominated by variation in the Cepheid fits, and for the SNe Ia, uncertainties in the host galaxy mass dependence and Malmquist bias.
0035-8711
2254-2285
Zhang, Bonne
dc254446-4f9e-4be9-ae0b-05f7ca77e362
Childress, Michael
7d0e608c-b9de-4631-bab5-7a2b810a0a2b
Davis, T.M.
698ea460-7e33-4d58-8184-c5ac79bb37a5
Karpenka, Natallia
1213b4a7-ef6f-4bc5-adfa-7f8e4478d4e5
Lidman, Chris
b22c76f7-371b-49b0-92f5-5c656a641b91
Schmidt, Brian P.
b9edc959-375e-4456-9a7f-62b807097a4e
Smith, Mathew
8bdc74e1-a37b-434d-ae75-82763109bf7a
Zhang, Bonne
dc254446-4f9e-4be9-ae0b-05f7ca77e362
Childress, Michael
7d0e608c-b9de-4631-bab5-7a2b810a0a2b
Davis, T.M.
698ea460-7e33-4d58-8184-c5ac79bb37a5
Karpenka, Natallia
1213b4a7-ef6f-4bc5-adfa-7f8e4478d4e5
Lidman, Chris
b22c76f7-371b-49b0-92f5-5c656a641b91
Schmidt, Brian P.
b9edc959-375e-4456-9a7f-62b807097a4e
Smith, Mathew
8bdc74e1-a37b-434d-ae75-82763109bf7a

Zhang, Bonne, Childress, Michael, Davis, T.M., Karpenka, Natallia, Lidman, Chris, Schmidt, Brian P. and Smith, Mathew (2017) A blinded determination of H0 from low-redshift Type Ia supernovae, calibrated by Cepheid variables. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 471 (2), 2254-2285. (doi:10.1093/mnras/stx1600).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Presently, a >3σ tension exists between values of the Hubble constant H0 derived from analysis of fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background by Planck, and local measurements of the expansion using calibrators of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). We perform a blinded re-analysis of Riess et al. (2011) to measure H0 from low-redshift SNe Ia, calibrated by Cepheid variables and geometric distances including to NGC 4258. This paper is a demonstration of techniques to be applied to the Riess et al. (2016) data. Our end-to-end analysis starts from available Harvard -Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA3) and Lick Observatory Supernova Search (LOSS) photometries, providing an independent validation of Riess et al. (2011). We obscure the value of H0 throughout our analysis and the first stage of the referee process, because calibration of SNe Ia requires a series of often subtle choices, and the potential for results to be affected by human bias is significant. Our analysis departs from that of Riess et al. (2011) by incorporating the covariance matrix method adopted in Supernova Legacy Survey and Joint Lightcurve Analysis to quantify SN Ia systematics, and by including a simultaneous fit of all SN Ia and Cepheid data. We find H 0 =72.5±3.1(stat)±0.77(sys) H0=72.5±3.1(stat)±0.77(sys) km s−1 Mpc−1with a three-galaxy (NGC 4258+LMC+MW) anchor. The relative uncertainties are 4.3 per cent statistical, 1.1 per cent systematic, and 4.4 per cent total, larger than in Riess et al. (2011) (3.3 per cent total) and the Efstathiou (2014) re-analysis (3.4 per cent total). Our error budget for H0 is dominated by statistical errors due to the small size of the SN sample, whilst the systematic contribution is dominated by variation in the Cepheid fits, and for the SNe Ia, uncertainties in the host galaxy mass dependence and Malmquist bias.

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A blinded determination of H0 from low-redshift Type Ia - Accepted Manuscript
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Accepted/In Press date: 22 June 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 26 June 2017
Published date: 21 October 2017

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 414439
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/414439
ISSN: 0035-8711
PURE UUID: 723a4b22-a041-4e30-91d7-73076241e7b1
ORCID for Mathew Smith: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-3321-1432

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Date deposited: 29 Sep 2017 16:31
Last modified: 18 Jul 2019 11:31

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