Simulation modelling of infectious diseases

Abstract

This thesis looks at the use mathematical modelling, in particular the use of simulation as a solution technique, when applied to the problem of the study of infectious diseases.

The thesis examines two different routes of infection of the bacteria Chlamydia Trachomatis-, the sexually transmitted disease Chlamydia, and the ocular disease Trachoma.

Several simulation models are developed within the thesis. The exploration of Chlamydia results in a prototype model which it is suggested could be extended in a future project.

The work exploring Trachoma resulted in the development of a model useful in the evaluation of intervention strategies, as well as the statistical analysis of data which provides the necessary data for the modelling work. The analysis provides values for the duration of Trachoma infection, and for the incidence of the infection; figures which have previously not been available.

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