Unpacking the differential impact of family planning policies in China: analysis of parity progression ratios from retrospective birth history data, 1971-2005

Abstract

Although China’s family planning programme is often referred to in the singular, most notably the ‘one child policy’ in reality there have been a number of different policies in place simultaneously, targeted at different sub-populations characterised by region and socio economic conditions. This study represents the first attempt to systematically assess the differential impact of China’s family planning programmes over the past 40 years. To achieve this, the paper examines the contribution of parity progression ratios to fertility change among different sub-populations exposed to various Family Planning Policies (FPP) over time. Cross-sectional birth history data from six consecutive rounds of nationally representative population and family planning surveys from early 1970s till mid-2000 are used, covering all geographical regions of China. Four sub-populations exposed to differential FPP regimes are identified. The analyses provide compelling evidence of the influential role of FPP in reducing higher parity progression ratios across different sub populations, particularly in urban China where fertility dropped to replacement level even before the implementation of the one-child policy. The prevailing socioeconomic conditions in turn have been instrumental in adapting and accelerating FPP responses to reducing fertility levels across China.

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Identifiers

ORCID for Min Qin: orcid.org/0000-0002-5941-9979

ORCID for Jane Falkingham: orcid.org/0000-0002-7135-5875

ORCID for Sabu Padmadas: orcid.org/0000-0002-6538-9374

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