Drivers of continued surface warming after cessation of carbon emissions
Drivers of continued surface warming after cessation of carbon emissions
The climate response after cessation of carbon emissions is examined here, exploiting a single equation connecting surface warming to cumulative carbon emissions. The multi-centennial response to an idealized pulse of carbon is considered by diagnosing a 1000 year integration of an Earth system model (GFDL ESM2M) and an ensemble of efficient Earth system model simulations. After emissions cease, surface temperature evolves according to (i) how much of the emitted carbon remains in the atmosphere and (ii) how much of the additional radiative forcing warms the surface rather than the ocean interior. The peak in surface temperature is delayed in time after carbon emissions cease through the decline in ocean heat uptake, which in turn increases the proportion of radiative forcing warming the surface. Eventually, after many centuries, surface temperature declines as the radiative forcing decreases through the excess atmospheric CO2 being taken up by the ocean and land.
10633-10642
Williams, Richard G.
242e0d43-07d9-4d90-a761-e0325101f31b
Roussenov, Vassil
4d9c742c-83f3-418b-b35f-0866634651ec
Frolicher, Thomas L.
67e352fb-58f7-4e61-a790-1e84ce98e655
Goodwin, Philip
87dbb154-5c39-473a-8121-c794487ee1fd
28 October 2017
Williams, Richard G.
242e0d43-07d9-4d90-a761-e0325101f31b
Roussenov, Vassil
4d9c742c-83f3-418b-b35f-0866634651ec
Frolicher, Thomas L.
67e352fb-58f7-4e61-a790-1e84ce98e655
Goodwin, Philip
87dbb154-5c39-473a-8121-c794487ee1fd
Williams, Richard G., Roussenov, Vassil, Frolicher, Thomas L. and Goodwin, Philip
(2017)
Drivers of continued surface warming after cessation of carbon emissions.
Geophysical Research Letters, 44 (20), .
(doi:10.1002/2017GL075080).
Abstract
The climate response after cessation of carbon emissions is examined here, exploiting a single equation connecting surface warming to cumulative carbon emissions. The multi-centennial response to an idealized pulse of carbon is considered by diagnosing a 1000 year integration of an Earth system model (GFDL ESM2M) and an ensemble of efficient Earth system model simulations. After emissions cease, surface temperature evolves according to (i) how much of the emitted carbon remains in the atmosphere and (ii) how much of the additional radiative forcing warms the surface rather than the ocean interior. The peak in surface temperature is delayed in time after carbon emissions cease through the decline in ocean heat uptake, which in turn increases the proportion of radiative forcing warming the surface. Eventually, after many centuries, surface temperature declines as the radiative forcing decreases through the excess atmospheric CO2 being taken up by the ocean and land.
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Accepted/In Press date: 4 October 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 9 October 2017
Published date: 28 October 2017
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 414874
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/414874
ISSN: 0094-8276
PURE UUID: b96c2fe1-f367-4d5f-b820-9ff9ac5e365d
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Date deposited: 13 Oct 2017 16:30
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 04:16
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Author:
Richard G. Williams
Author:
Vassil Roussenov
Author:
Thomas L. Frolicher
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