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Bermuda subtropical storms

Bermuda subtropical storms
Bermuda subtropical storms
This investigation focuses on North Atlantic subtropical cyclones which tracked within 100 nautical miles (185 km) of Bermuda from 1957 to 2005, identified through subtropical structural characteristics distinguished using Cyclone Phase Space, from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 45-year reanalyses. The study assesses the characteristics of these hybrid storms that affect the Island, in order to aid the local forecaster. Reanalysis charts, surface analyses, local observations, HURDAT tracks, and satellite pictures, where available, were examined. This data shows that subtropical cyclones affecting Bermuda usually form in close proximity, to the south-southwest, over water of an average of 26 °C, under moderate vertical wind shear, with an upper trough lying to the west-north-west. They then move in a north-northeastward direction, intensifying quickly, but not often reaching a peak intensity of more than 26 m s−1. They generally have their beginnings along old baroclinic zones. September is the peak month of occurrence. A direct hit by a severe subtropical cyclone, producing locally observed winds of over 26 m s−1, appears to be a rare event. However, these storms are certainly a threat to the Island, particularly due to their lack of predictability, and conditions conducive to an incipient subtropical cyclone with potential to affect the Island should always be closely monitored.
0177-7971
239-253
Guishard, M. P.
2e28c1b2-17ea-4dbd-a574-d79208cfe3cf
Nelson, E.A.
29d2058e-dd68-4f5e-995b-0748ff3ef10c
Hart, R.E.
cc95bfc7-0b33-4fe2-84fd-2b667786079b
O’connell, D. G.
80cd855a-20d2-4049-8fa8-8077315a88cd
Guishard, M. P.
2e28c1b2-17ea-4dbd-a574-d79208cfe3cf
Nelson, E.A.
29d2058e-dd68-4f5e-995b-0748ff3ef10c
Hart, R.E.
cc95bfc7-0b33-4fe2-84fd-2b667786079b
O’connell, D. G.
80cd855a-20d2-4049-8fa8-8077315a88cd

Guishard, M. P., Nelson, E.A., Hart, R.E. and O’connell, D. G. (2007) Bermuda subtropical storms. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 97 (1-4), 239-253. (doi:10.1007/s00703-006-0255-y).

Record type: Article

Abstract

This investigation focuses on North Atlantic subtropical cyclones which tracked within 100 nautical miles (185 km) of Bermuda from 1957 to 2005, identified through subtropical structural characteristics distinguished using Cyclone Phase Space, from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 45-year reanalyses. The study assesses the characteristics of these hybrid storms that affect the Island, in order to aid the local forecaster. Reanalysis charts, surface analyses, local observations, HURDAT tracks, and satellite pictures, where available, were examined. This data shows that subtropical cyclones affecting Bermuda usually form in close proximity, to the south-southwest, over water of an average of 26 °C, under moderate vertical wind shear, with an upper trough lying to the west-north-west. They then move in a north-northeastward direction, intensifying quickly, but not often reaching a peak intensity of more than 26 m s−1. They generally have their beginnings along old baroclinic zones. September is the peak month of occurrence. A direct hit by a severe subtropical cyclone, producing locally observed winds of over 26 m s−1, appears to be a rare event. However, these storms are certainly a threat to the Island, particularly due to their lack of predictability, and conditions conducive to an incipient subtropical cyclone with potential to affect the Island should always be closely monitored.

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More information

Published date: 1 August 2007

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 415063
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/415063
ISSN: 0177-7971
PURE UUID: 7736a4fa-3e95-405f-b1a1-04b6565c8085

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Date deposited: 25 Oct 2017 16:30
Last modified: 07 Jan 2022 22:46

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Contributors

Author: M. P. Guishard
Author: E.A. Nelson
Author: R.E. Hart
Author: D. G. O’connell

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