The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Something from nothing: estimating consumption rates using propensity scores, with application to emissions reduction policies

Something from nothing: estimating consumption rates using propensity scores, with application to emissions reduction policies
Something from nothing: estimating consumption rates using propensity scores, with application to emissions reduction policies
Consumption surveys often record zero purchases of a good because of a short observation window. Measures of distribution are then precluded and only mean consumption rates can be inferred. We show that Propensity Score Matching can be applied to recover the distribution of consumption rates. We demonstrate the method using the UK National Travel Survey, in which 40% of motorist households purchase no fuel. Estimated consumption rates are plausible judging by households' annual mileages, and highly skewed. We apply the same approach to estimate CO2 emissions and outcomes of a carbon cap or tax. Reliance on means apparently distorts analysis of such policies because of skewness of the underlying distributions. The regressiveness of a simple tax or cap is overstated, and redistributive features of a revenue-neutral policy are understated.
infrequency of purchase, emission reduction policies, propensity score matching
1932-6203
1-23
Bardsley, Nicholas
4642d3b9-d339-42aa-8bc3-935875cf72ae
Buchs, Milena
c62b4fbd-660c-4642-876e-de9512db9a9c
Schnepf, Sylke
c987c810-d33c-4675-9764-b5e15c581dbc
Bardsley, Nicholas
4642d3b9-d339-42aa-8bc3-935875cf72ae
Buchs, Milena
c62b4fbd-660c-4642-876e-de9512db9a9c
Schnepf, Sylke
c987c810-d33c-4675-9764-b5e15c581dbc

Bardsley, Nicholas, Buchs, Milena and Schnepf, Sylke (2017) Something from nothing: estimating consumption rates using propensity scores, with application to emissions reduction policies PLoS ONE, 12, (10), pp. 1-23. (doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0185538).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Consumption surveys often record zero purchases of a good because of a short observation window. Measures of distribution are then precluded and only mean consumption rates can be inferred. We show that Propensity Score Matching can be applied to recover the distribution of consumption rates. We demonstrate the method using the UK National Travel Survey, in which 40% of motorist households purchase no fuel. Estimated consumption rates are plausible judging by households' annual mileages, and highly skewed. We apply the same approach to estimate CO2 emissions and outcomes of a carbon cap or tax. Reliance on means apparently distorts analysis of such policies because of skewness of the underlying distributions. The regressiveness of a simple tax or cap is overstated, and redistributive features of a revenue-neutral policy are understated.

Text Plos one something from nothing - Version of Record
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
Download (2MB)

More information

Accepted/In Press date: 14 September 2017
Published date: 11 October 2017
Keywords: infrequency of purchase, emission reduction policies, propensity score matching

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 415132
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/415132
ISSN: 1932-6203
PURE UUID: c3da84de-7800-489d-98b6-2fef474b0047

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 01 Nov 2017 17:30
Last modified: 01 Nov 2017 17:30

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: Nicholas Bardsley
Author: Milena Buchs
Author: Sylke Schnepf

University divisions

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×