Something from nothing: estimating consumption rates using propensity scores, with application to emissions reduction policies
Something from nothing: estimating consumption rates using propensity scores, with application to emissions reduction policies
Consumption surveys often record zero purchases of a good because of a short observation window. Measures of distribution are then precluded and only mean consumption rates can be inferred. We show that Propensity Score Matching can be applied to recover the distribution of consumption rates. We demonstrate the method using the UK National Travel Survey, in which 40% of motorist households purchase no fuel. Estimated consumption rates are plausible judging by households' annual mileages, and highly skewed. We apply the same approach to estimate CO2 emissions and outcomes of a carbon cap or tax. Reliance on means apparently distorts analysis of such policies because of skewness of the underlying distributions. The regressiveness of a simple tax or cap is overstated, and redistributive features of a revenue-neutral policy are understated.
infrequency of purchase, emission reduction policies, propensity score matching
1-23
Bardsley, Nicholas
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Buchs, Milena
c62b4fbd-660c-4642-876e-de9512db9a9c
Schnepf, Sylke
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11 October 2017
Bardsley, Nicholas
4642d3b9-d339-42aa-8bc3-935875cf72ae
Buchs, Milena
c62b4fbd-660c-4642-876e-de9512db9a9c
Schnepf, Sylke
c987c810-d33c-4675-9764-b5e15c581dbc
Bardsley, Nicholas, Buchs, Milena and Schnepf, Sylke
(2017)
Something from nothing: estimating consumption rates using propensity scores, with application to emissions reduction policies.
PLoS ONE, 12 (10), , [1].
(doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0185538).
Abstract
Consumption surveys often record zero purchases of a good because of a short observation window. Measures of distribution are then precluded and only mean consumption rates can be inferred. We show that Propensity Score Matching can be applied to recover the distribution of consumption rates. We demonstrate the method using the UK National Travel Survey, in which 40% of motorist households purchase no fuel. Estimated consumption rates are plausible judging by households' annual mileages, and highly skewed. We apply the same approach to estimate CO2 emissions and outcomes of a carbon cap or tax. Reliance on means apparently distorts analysis of such policies because of skewness of the underlying distributions. The regressiveness of a simple tax or cap is overstated, and redistributive features of a revenue-neutral policy are understated.
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Plos one something from nothing
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More information
Accepted/In Press date: 14 September 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 11 October 2017
Published date: 11 October 2017
Keywords:
infrequency of purchase, emission reduction policies, propensity score matching
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 415132
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/415132
ISSN: 1932-6203
PURE UUID: c3da84de-7800-489d-98b6-2fef474b0047
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Date deposited: 01 Nov 2017 17:30
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 16:38
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Contributors
Author:
Nicholas Bardsley
Author:
Milena Buchs
Author:
Sylke Schnepf
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