The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Three papers on decision theoretic agent-based modelling in demography

Three papers on decision theoretic agent-based modelling in demography
Three papers on decision theoretic agent-based modelling in demography
This thesis consists of three papers, which address Agent-Based Modelling (AM) as a methodology in demography, focusing on the modelling of decision making processes. The discussion begins by assessing the utility of AM as a methodology and some of the issues peculiar to it, and argues that the modelling of choice is of special significance in the demographic context. Of the three papers, the first one outlines an approach to model development combining aspects of game theory, and decision theory. It then contrasts the effect of four choice models on the behaviour of a simulation based on qualitative accounts of the disclosure behaviours surrounding alcohol misuse in pregnancy. The second paper applies this approach to help-seeking in older adult care, drawing on survey data to parameterise and validate the model. Simulation results, and variance-based sensitivity analysis indicate that a model of decision making which incorporates a representation of the interactions between agents are necessary to reproduce observed rates of caregiving. The third paper reports experiments designed to validate the choice behaviour of agents in the older adult care model. I examine human decision making about paired gambles from experience, where the pair has some features common to both choices. I report results for eight decision problems undertaken by 20 participants, and contrast the predictive ability of four models of decision making. I then estimate parameters to maximise the fit where possible, and find that while the best performance is offered by decision models with a representation of the problem, they do not offer a significant advantage over heuristic methods. I discuss the implications of this, in the context of the original agent-based model, and for agent-based modelling more generally.
University of Southampton
Gray, Jonathan
93c44ff0-29b8-48a1-be30-09be7d129ed1
Gray, Jonathan
93c44ff0-29b8-48a1-be30-09be7d129ed1
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Bullock, Seth
2ad576e4-56b8-4f31-84e0-51bd0b7a1cd3

Gray, Jonathan (2017) Three papers on decision theoretic agent-based modelling in demography. University of Southampton, Doctoral Thesis, 223pp.

Record type: Thesis (Doctoral)

Abstract

This thesis consists of three papers, which address Agent-Based Modelling (AM) as a methodology in demography, focusing on the modelling of decision making processes. The discussion begins by assessing the utility of AM as a methodology and some of the issues peculiar to it, and argues that the modelling of choice is of special significance in the demographic context. Of the three papers, the first one outlines an approach to model development combining aspects of game theory, and decision theory. It then contrasts the effect of four choice models on the behaviour of a simulation based on qualitative accounts of the disclosure behaviours surrounding alcohol misuse in pregnancy. The second paper applies this approach to help-seeking in older adult care, drawing on survey data to parameterise and validate the model. Simulation results, and variance-based sensitivity analysis indicate that a model of decision making which incorporates a representation of the interactions between agents are necessary to reproduce observed rates of caregiving. The third paper reports experiments designed to validate the choice behaviour of agents in the older adult care model. I examine human decision making about paired gambles from experience, where the pair has some features common to both choices. I report results for eight decision problems undertaken by 20 participants, and contrast the predictive ability of four models of decision making. I then estimate parameters to maximise the fit where possible, and find that while the best performance is offered by decision models with a representation of the problem, they do not offer a significant advantage over heuristic methods. I discuss the implications of this, in the context of the original agent-based model, and for agent-based modelling more generally.

Text
Three Papers on Decision Theoretic Agent-Based Modelling in Demography - Version of Record
Available under License University of Southampton Thesis Licence.
Download (8MB)

More information

Published date: May 2017

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 415895
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/415895
PURE UUID: cca79799-16d4-42da-8b54-bd4b44ab56d4
ORCID for Jakub Bijak: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-2563-5040

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 28 Nov 2017 17:30
Last modified: 14 Mar 2019 01:38

Export record

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×