The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Prospects for seasonal forecasting of iceberg distributions in the North Atlantic

Prospects for seasonal forecasting of iceberg distributions in the North Atlantic
Prospects for seasonal forecasting of iceberg distributions in the North Atlantic
An efficient approach to ocean-iceberg modelling provides a means for assessing prospects for seasonal forecasting of iceberg distributions in the northwest Atlantic, where icebergs present a hazard to mariners each spring. The Stand-Alone Surface (SAS) module that is part of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) is coupled with the NEMO iceberg module (ICB) in a “SAS-ICB” configuration with horizontal resolution of 0.25°. Iceberg conditions are investigated for three recent years, 2013-15, characterized by widely varying iceberg distributions. The relative simplicity of SAS-ICB facilitates efficient investigation of sensitivity to iceberg fluxes and prevailing environmental conditions. SAS-ICB is provided with daily surface ocean analysis fields from the global Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) of the Met Office. Surface currents, temperatures and height together determine iceberg advection and melting rates. Iceberg drift is further governed by surface winds, which are updated every 3 hours. The flux of icebergs from the Greenland ice sheet is determined from engineering control theory, and specified as an upstream flux in the vicinity of Davis Strait for January or February. Simulated iceberg distributions are evaluated alongside observations reported and archived by the International Ice Patrol. The best agreement with observations is obtained when variability in both upstream iceberg flux and oceanographic/atmospheric conditions are taken into account. Including interactive icebergs in an ocean-atmosphere model with sufficient seasonal forecast skill, and provided with accurate winter iceberg fluxes, it is concluded that seasonal forecasts of spring/summer iceberg conditions for the northwest Atlantic are now a realistic prospect.
0921-030X
Marsh, Robert
702c2e7e-ac19-4019-abd9-a8614ab27717
Bigg, Grant
e2f41dd4-1736-4c61-87fe-9a90f986fcfc
Zhao, Yifan
7a5bdca6-ae93-44fa-8d95-c67269464424
Martin, Matthew J.
d883085b-e16c-4382-9e82-b3dadb6ae6fb
Blundell, Jeffrey R.
88114f32-6b76-46b2-b2d8-d6ef64a82b0d
Josey, Simon A.
2252ab7f-5cd2-49fd-a951-aece44553d93
Hanna, Edward
3d7cf4a5-a99d-4f52-bc1f-c48e800502a5
Ivchenko, Vladimir
2664ccb5-a551-4247-b8a4-70c5d590808a
Marsh, Robert
702c2e7e-ac19-4019-abd9-a8614ab27717
Bigg, Grant
e2f41dd4-1736-4c61-87fe-9a90f986fcfc
Zhao, Yifan
7a5bdca6-ae93-44fa-8d95-c67269464424
Martin, Matthew J.
d883085b-e16c-4382-9e82-b3dadb6ae6fb
Blundell, Jeffrey R.
88114f32-6b76-46b2-b2d8-d6ef64a82b0d
Josey, Simon A.
2252ab7f-5cd2-49fd-a951-aece44553d93
Hanna, Edward
3d7cf4a5-a99d-4f52-bc1f-c48e800502a5
Ivchenko, Vladimir
2664ccb5-a551-4247-b8a4-70c5d590808a

Marsh, Robert, Bigg, Grant, Zhao, Yifan, Martin, Matthew J., Blundell, Jeffrey R., Josey, Simon A., Hanna, Edward and Ivchenko, Vladimir (2017) Prospects for seasonal forecasting of iceberg distributions in the North Atlantic. Natural Hazards. (doi:10.1007/s11069-017-3136-4).

Record type: Article

Abstract

An efficient approach to ocean-iceberg modelling provides a means for assessing prospects for seasonal forecasting of iceberg distributions in the northwest Atlantic, where icebergs present a hazard to mariners each spring. The Stand-Alone Surface (SAS) module that is part of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) is coupled with the NEMO iceberg module (ICB) in a “SAS-ICB” configuration with horizontal resolution of 0.25°. Iceberg conditions are investigated for three recent years, 2013-15, characterized by widely varying iceberg distributions. The relative simplicity of SAS-ICB facilitates efficient investigation of sensitivity to iceberg fluxes and prevailing environmental conditions. SAS-ICB is provided with daily surface ocean analysis fields from the global Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) of the Met Office. Surface currents, temperatures and height together determine iceberg advection and melting rates. Iceberg drift is further governed by surface winds, which are updated every 3 hours. The flux of icebergs from the Greenland ice sheet is determined from engineering control theory, and specified as an upstream flux in the vicinity of Davis Strait for January or February. Simulated iceberg distributions are evaluated alongside observations reported and archived by the International Ice Patrol. The best agreement with observations is obtained when variability in both upstream iceberg flux and oceanographic/atmospheric conditions are taken into account. Including interactive icebergs in an ocean-atmosphere model with sufficient seasonal forecast skill, and provided with accurate winter iceberg fluxes, it is concluded that seasonal forecasts of spring/summer iceberg conditions for the northwest Atlantic are now a realistic prospect.

Text
Marsh_et_al-2017-Natural_Hazards - Version of Record
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
Download (5MB)

More information

Accepted/In Press date: 22 November 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 11 December 2017

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 416526
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/416526
ISSN: 0921-030X
PURE UUID: 78271931-42ab-40fe-acac-290787a8485d

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 21 Dec 2017 17:30
Last modified: 06 Oct 2020 16:48

Export record

Altmetrics

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×