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International migration: Trends, determinants and policy effects

International migration: Trends, determinants and policy effects
International migration: Trends, determinants and policy effects
What have been the main trends and drivers of international migration over the last century, and to what extent have migration policies been effective in shaping the volume, direction, timing, and selection of immigration and emigration? This paper reviews the insights on migration trends, determinants and policy effects gained through the DEMIG (Determinants of International Migration) project. Questioning popular perceptions of accelerating international migration, the increase in global migration has remained proportional to the increase in world population. The main migratory shifts in the second half of the twentieth century have been directional, particularly through the decline of Europe as an area of origin and the emergence of Europe and the Gulf as new global destinations. This shift in migration movements towards Europe has been associated by an overall liberalisation of migration policies, which have increasingly focused on the selecting of migrants rather than controlling numbers per se. Most rules around legal entry, stay and exit of migrants have been relaxed, but a combination of visa and border control policies have served to prevent the entry of asylum seekers and other ‘unwanted’ migrants. Our analysis shows that it would therefore be excessive to conclude that borders are ‘beyond control’ (cf. Bhagwati 2003), and that migration policies are generally effective. Yet several ‘substitution effects’ limit or undermine the effectiveness of migration controls by (1) redirecting migration through other geographical routes and destinations (spatial substitution), (2) diverting migration through other legal and unauthorized channels (categorical substitution), (3) “now or never” migration surges in anticipation of restrictions (intertemporal substitution) and (4) discouraging return and interrupting circulation (reverse flow substitution). These expose fundamental policy dilemmas as well as the importance to look beyond migration policies. Our results show the importance of accounting for the complex and often counterintuitive ways in which structural social, economic, and political factors affect migration in mostly indirect, but powerful ways that largely lie beyond the reach of migration policies.
142
International Migration Institute
de Haas, Hein
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Czaika, Mathias
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Flahaux, Marie Laurence
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Mahendra, Edo
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Natter, Katharina
f7035653-9825-4e14-88cc-82fd2e09be33
Vezzoli, Simona
81de3272-ee20-4392-b50c-1e1252f63f33
Villares-Varela, Maria
5e63e77d-525f-4196-8be8-e8c7db56eae1
de Haas, Hein
0848aa4f-e767-4154-a2a9-4a37a3e481a3
Czaika, Mathias
2e99b4b9-0bc8-4665-b5a1-431cbd6f9b3f
Flahaux, Marie Laurence
6980d281-c9f4-430b-a3f4-e62c4708bb71
Mahendra, Edo
9c840cbf-2eba-4789-8f0f-e4cedcdd85ed
Natter, Katharina
f7035653-9825-4e14-88cc-82fd2e09be33
Vezzoli, Simona
81de3272-ee20-4392-b50c-1e1252f63f33
Villares-Varela, Maria
5e63e77d-525f-4196-8be8-e8c7db56eae1

de Haas, Hein, Czaika, Mathias, Flahaux, Marie Laurence, Mahendra, Edo, Natter, Katharina, Vezzoli, Simona and Villares-Varela, Maria (2018) International migration: Trends, determinants and policy effects (IMIn Working Paper Series, 142) International Migration Institute

Record type: Monograph (Working Paper)

Abstract

What have been the main trends and drivers of international migration over the last century, and to what extent have migration policies been effective in shaping the volume, direction, timing, and selection of immigration and emigration? This paper reviews the insights on migration trends, determinants and policy effects gained through the DEMIG (Determinants of International Migration) project. Questioning popular perceptions of accelerating international migration, the increase in global migration has remained proportional to the increase in world population. The main migratory shifts in the second half of the twentieth century have been directional, particularly through the decline of Europe as an area of origin and the emergence of Europe and the Gulf as new global destinations. This shift in migration movements towards Europe has been associated by an overall liberalisation of migration policies, which have increasingly focused on the selecting of migrants rather than controlling numbers per se. Most rules around legal entry, stay and exit of migrants have been relaxed, but a combination of visa and border control policies have served to prevent the entry of asylum seekers and other ‘unwanted’ migrants. Our analysis shows that it would therefore be excessive to conclude that borders are ‘beyond control’ (cf. Bhagwati 2003), and that migration policies are generally effective. Yet several ‘substitution effects’ limit or undermine the effectiveness of migration controls by (1) redirecting migration through other geographical routes and destinations (spatial substitution), (2) diverting migration through other legal and unauthorized channels (categorical substitution), (3) “now or never” migration surges in anticipation of restrictions (intertemporal substitution) and (4) discouraging return and interrupting circulation (reverse flow substitution). These expose fundamental policy dilemmas as well as the importance to look beyond migration policies. Our results show the importance of accounting for the complex and often counterintuitive ways in which structural social, economic, and political factors affect migration in mostly indirect, but powerful ways that largely lie beyond the reach of migration policies.

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WP 142-1 - Other
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Published date: 2018

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 417084
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/417084
PURE UUID: c50f4874-4a9b-4c6f-8a25-11e945a966ff
ORCID for Maria Villares-Varela: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-0137-7104

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Date deposited: 19 Jan 2018 17:30
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 04:28

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Contributors

Author: Hein de Haas
Author: Mathias Czaika
Author: Marie Laurence Flahaux
Author: Edo Mahendra
Author: Katharina Natter
Author: Simona Vezzoli

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