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Multinational patterns of seasonal asymmetry in human movement influence infectious disease dynamics

Multinational patterns of seasonal asymmetry in human movement influence infectious disease dynamics
Multinational patterns of seasonal asymmetry in human movement influence infectious disease dynamics
Seasonal variation in human mobility is globally ubiquitous and affects the spatial spread of infectious diseases, but the ability to measure seasonality in human movement has been limited by data availability. Here, we use mobile phone data to quantify seasonal travel and directional asymmetries in Kenya, Namibia, and Pakistan, across a spectrum from rural nomadic populations to highly urbanized communities. We then model how the geographic spread of several acute pathogens with varying life histories could depend on country-wide connectivity fluctuations through the year. In all three countries, major national holidays are associated with shifts in the scope of travel. Within this broader pattern, the relative importance of particular routes also fluctuates over the course of the year, with increased travel from rural to urban communities after national holidays, for example. These changes in travel impact how fast communities are likely to be reached by an introduced pathogen.
Wesolowski, Amy
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Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, Elisabeth DP
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Tatem, Andrew J.
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Lourenco, Christopher
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Viboud, Cecile
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Eagle, Nathan
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Engø-Monsen, Kenth
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Qureshi, Taimur
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Buckee, Caroline O.
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Metcalf, C.J.E.
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Wesolowski, Amy
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Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, Elisabeth DP
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Tatem, Andrew J.
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Lourenco, Christopher
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Viboud, Cecile
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Eagle, Nathan
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Engø-Monsen, Kenth
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Qureshi, Taimur
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Buckee, Caroline O.
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Metcalf, C.J.E.
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Wesolowski, Amy, Zu Erbach-Schoenberg, Elisabeth DP, Tatem, Andrew J., Lourenco, Christopher, Viboud, Cecile, Eagle, Nathan, Engø-Monsen, Kenth, Qureshi, Taimur, Buckee, Caroline O. and Metcalf, C.J.E. (2017) Multinational patterns of seasonal asymmetry in human movement influence infectious disease dynamics. Nature Communications, 8, [2069]. (doi:10.1038/s41467-017-02064-4).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Seasonal variation in human mobility is globally ubiquitous and affects the spatial spread of infectious diseases, but the ability to measure seasonality in human movement has been limited by data availability. Here, we use mobile phone data to quantify seasonal travel and directional asymmetries in Kenya, Namibia, and Pakistan, across a spectrum from rural nomadic populations to highly urbanized communities. We then model how the geographic spread of several acute pathogens with varying life histories could depend on country-wide connectivity fluctuations through the year. In all three countries, major national holidays are associated with shifts in the scope of travel. Within this broader pattern, the relative importance of particular routes also fluctuates over the course of the year, with increased travel from rural to urban communities after national holidays, for example. These changes in travel impact how fast communities are likely to be reached by an introduced pathogen.

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Accepted/In Press date: 3 November 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 12 December 2017

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 417295
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/417295
PURE UUID: c290f828-aa2d-4c52-af7c-3d896edbc18a
ORCID for Andrew J. Tatem: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

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Date deposited: 29 Jan 2018 17:30
Last modified: 07 Oct 2020 02:01

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Contributors

Author: Amy Wesolowski
Author: Elisabeth DP Zu Erbach-Schoenberg
Author: Andrew J. Tatem ORCID iD
Author: Christopher Lourenco
Author: Cecile Viboud
Author: Nathan Eagle
Author: Kenth Engø-Monsen
Author: Taimur Qureshi
Author: Caroline O. Buckee
Author: C.J.E. Metcalf

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