Impact of credit risk and business cycles on momentum returns
Impact of credit risk and business cycles on momentum returns
In this paper, we show that significant momentum returns generate from credit-rated stocks across business cycles. The generation of momentum earned from speculative-grade stocks is on average 1.27% per month and are more prevalent during contraction periods in which they earn 1.61% per month. We also find that investment-grade stocks earn on average momentum returns of 0.85% per month and 1.14% per month during contractions. Higher momentum returns are unexplained by macroeconomic variables during contractions such as the 2008 recession. Our findings conclude that momentum return is due to high uncertainty associated with the increased credit risk of stocks and across business cycles.
Business cycles, Credit-rated stocks, Momentum, Uncertainty
17-39
Sarwar, Sirajum Munira
4fbc5fab-884e-4bd5-8347-e019574ad445
Lin, Sharon Xiaowen
8e04cf8c-e194-4a35-91fa-ee261d553a9c
Muradoǧlu, Yaz Gülnur
075f7408-9f13-4e9d-8411-19fe38f7a479
Sarwar, Sirajum Munira
4fbc5fab-884e-4bd5-8347-e019574ad445
Lin, Sharon Xiaowen
8e04cf8c-e194-4a35-91fa-ee261d553a9c
Muradoǧlu, Yaz Gülnur
075f7408-9f13-4e9d-8411-19fe38f7a479
Sarwar, Sirajum Munira, Lin, Sharon Xiaowen and Muradoǧlu, Yaz Gülnur
(2017)
Impact of credit risk and business cycles on momentum returns.
In,
International Series in Operations Research and Management Science.
(International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, 257)
Springer New York, NY, .
(doi:10.1007/978-3-319-61320-8_2).
Record type:
Book Section
Abstract
In this paper, we show that significant momentum returns generate from credit-rated stocks across business cycles. The generation of momentum earned from speculative-grade stocks is on average 1.27% per month and are more prevalent during contraction periods in which they earn 1.61% per month. We also find that investment-grade stocks earn on average momentum returns of 0.85% per month and 1.14% per month during contractions. Higher momentum returns are unexplained by macroeconomic variables during contractions such as the 2008 recession. Our findings conclude that momentum return is due to high uncertainty associated with the increased credit risk of stocks and across business cycles.
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More information
e-pub ahead of print date: 30 September 2017
Keywords:
Business cycles, Credit-rated stocks, Momentum, Uncertainty
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 417477
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/417477
ISSN: 0884-8289
PURE UUID: cedfd16d-3e88-4575-b427-f0121fa4ae79
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Date deposited: 01 Feb 2018 17:30
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 18:13
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Contributors
Author:
Sirajum Munira Sarwar
Author:
Sharon Xiaowen Lin
Author:
Yaz Gülnur Muradoǧlu
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