The University of Southampton
×
Filter your search:
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?

How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?
How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?

The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of 103Gpc-3 yr-1, consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is z=0.8 for WFIRST, z=0.8 for LSST, and z=0.8 for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.

stars: neutron
2041-8205
Scolnic, D.
dcdbe5db-52ef-4d69-93d1-3f337046dcfa
Kessler, R.
99f83208-8a92-44e7-9bc0-bd076333095f
Brout, D.
2e6c15c6-38ee-4593-b3b6-3c3f406b4fb1
Cowperthwaite, P. S.
5be93ba2-960a-4476-b6cc-6a151b7bb66a
Soares-Santos, M.
0a0a5188-44fe-44c4-98c6-f462dee6dd8b
Annis, J.
b21af104-dcad-472a-8424-b49d41d41c06
Herner, K.
8c5ba564-599d-4452-841e-30937e2e8278
Chen, H. Y.
a92feae2-0830-4250-aaaf-93c8b8e41799
Sako, M.
c55b2dbb-04bd-4759-8c37-4d640f09c286
Doctor, Z.
0a03c8a4-03d6-4ba5-bb85-6ed7df7d6862
Butler, R. E.
77e3f369-c6a0-45e2-b6c1-6673a625e90d
Palmese, A.
f3884b7e-f72b-4f52-8eda-de972ee05872
Diehl, H. T.
cf996f45-85cd-43df-b621-3032f9527150
Frieman, J.
6c34b206-537c-429c-9aeb-5df1d1e5e656
Holz, D. E.
259ecfa7-133c-4296-b5b4-991736f24791
Berger, E.
5a5f6750-9e79-4f95-a7a0-417187fdf8bd
Chornock, R.
ad6ec7e5-6814-4dd5-9a70-ee6b499b4516
Villar, V. A.
a31eab4f-a56f-4b5b-a93f-958b59c049df
Nicholl, M.
25da1b2f-8de5-4c1d-b26a-a221457aff6e
Biswas, R.
7b2dcfda-59d0-4f46-9d8d-311d79615dd3
Hounsell, R.
2b4bb5e8-3d0a-407b-b00a-d8ac2573c397
Foley, R. J.
27729b95-ad5d-42a6-a04b-04dbe727b598
Metzger, J.
2654cfcb-5949-4693-a0e6-6aa8c552d19f
Rest, A.
46703e55-0c80-41d1-aeff-27269f39ddc3
García-Bellido, J.
0d901d62-f268-4982-a08b-880c578ab3d8
Möller, A.
64e6f7fe-41ac-498b-9f69-c88a0f7981c4
Nugent, P.
0b012273-c3a5-4319-ac63-d0d3e15f8f61
Abbott, T. M.C.
6afa6308-fd36-4189-aef0-d86c784311d9
Abdalla, F. B.
b32ec665-df5e-4703-9eef-a9b15ea7cf08
Allam, S.
0355ab50-73f1-493b-80dc-86c4d4422bee
Bechtol, K.
196af8f4-f0d6-4e85-9d03-7259b7210b23
Benoit-Lévy, A.
eea5849b-ea03-4147-8c3b-61255cbb30eb
Bertin, E.
6f2de635-03bc-4e21-99ae-00db71b944f7
Brooks, D.
a3c528d9-fb8a-406c-bc92-56eff4985bcf
Buckley-Geer, E.
ad57a7c9-6dbf-4b3d-a69f-d6cc5bb4fb8a
Rosell, A. Carnero
d66191ef-a014-4029-bfe8-e9b3c653e3be
Kind, M. Carrasco
b569a608-55e3-4a2b-8875-d6602c32c980
Carretero, J.
081b0f5d-7e69-469c-a22d-5b851f9b8d1d
Castander, F. J.
b61356c2-f7f5-4da7-9322-b9eda0b0081a
Cunha, C. E.
2251baca-c601-4b62-ac1c-51a43bd1e421
D'Andrea, C. B.
4befc380-f47c-49cc-a84e-2e2d2ac14edd
Costa, L. N.Da
b1ed9fd9-b99a-4012-8112-79cba46d8a23
Davis, C.
b98148c3-cb02-4943-91a4-7ae0a23c681e
Doel, P.
00d69910-6075-4a52-9c7b-57e947a3b171
Drlica-Wagner, A.
d47129ae-3b89-4fca-bab4-8b4019b1da05
Eifler, T. F.
0ef93d51-0f94-46cb-b882-a569b9a6b598
Flaugher, B.
cca72cda-37e5-4d1b-a792-c11946615fb5
Fosalba, P.
7309d371-b57b-4fb5-99f2-1dd419e46285
Gaztanaga, E.
3a3f63dd-9666-448c-9ec6-10e53fc0dc1a
Smith, M.
8bdc74e1-a37b-434d-ae75-82763109bf7a
DES Collaboration
Scolnic, D.
dcdbe5db-52ef-4d69-93d1-3f337046dcfa
Kessler, R.
99f83208-8a92-44e7-9bc0-bd076333095f
Brout, D.
2e6c15c6-38ee-4593-b3b6-3c3f406b4fb1
Cowperthwaite, P. S.
5be93ba2-960a-4476-b6cc-6a151b7bb66a
Soares-Santos, M.
0a0a5188-44fe-44c4-98c6-f462dee6dd8b
Annis, J.
b21af104-dcad-472a-8424-b49d41d41c06
Herner, K.
8c5ba564-599d-4452-841e-30937e2e8278
Chen, H. Y.
a92feae2-0830-4250-aaaf-93c8b8e41799
Sako, M.
c55b2dbb-04bd-4759-8c37-4d640f09c286
Doctor, Z.
0a03c8a4-03d6-4ba5-bb85-6ed7df7d6862
Butler, R. E.
77e3f369-c6a0-45e2-b6c1-6673a625e90d
Palmese, A.
f3884b7e-f72b-4f52-8eda-de972ee05872
Diehl, H. T.
cf996f45-85cd-43df-b621-3032f9527150
Frieman, J.
6c34b206-537c-429c-9aeb-5df1d1e5e656
Holz, D. E.
259ecfa7-133c-4296-b5b4-991736f24791
Berger, E.
5a5f6750-9e79-4f95-a7a0-417187fdf8bd
Chornock, R.
ad6ec7e5-6814-4dd5-9a70-ee6b499b4516
Villar, V. A.
a31eab4f-a56f-4b5b-a93f-958b59c049df
Nicholl, M.
25da1b2f-8de5-4c1d-b26a-a221457aff6e
Biswas, R.
7b2dcfda-59d0-4f46-9d8d-311d79615dd3
Hounsell, R.
2b4bb5e8-3d0a-407b-b00a-d8ac2573c397
Foley, R. J.
27729b95-ad5d-42a6-a04b-04dbe727b598
Metzger, J.
2654cfcb-5949-4693-a0e6-6aa8c552d19f
Rest, A.
46703e55-0c80-41d1-aeff-27269f39ddc3
García-Bellido, J.
0d901d62-f268-4982-a08b-880c578ab3d8
Möller, A.
64e6f7fe-41ac-498b-9f69-c88a0f7981c4
Nugent, P.
0b012273-c3a5-4319-ac63-d0d3e15f8f61
Abbott, T. M.C.
6afa6308-fd36-4189-aef0-d86c784311d9
Abdalla, F. B.
b32ec665-df5e-4703-9eef-a9b15ea7cf08
Allam, S.
0355ab50-73f1-493b-80dc-86c4d4422bee
Bechtol, K.
196af8f4-f0d6-4e85-9d03-7259b7210b23
Benoit-Lévy, A.
eea5849b-ea03-4147-8c3b-61255cbb30eb
Bertin, E.
6f2de635-03bc-4e21-99ae-00db71b944f7
Brooks, D.
a3c528d9-fb8a-406c-bc92-56eff4985bcf
Buckley-Geer, E.
ad57a7c9-6dbf-4b3d-a69f-d6cc5bb4fb8a
Rosell, A. Carnero
d66191ef-a014-4029-bfe8-e9b3c653e3be
Kind, M. Carrasco
b569a608-55e3-4a2b-8875-d6602c32c980
Carretero, J.
081b0f5d-7e69-469c-a22d-5b851f9b8d1d
Castander, F. J.
b61356c2-f7f5-4da7-9322-b9eda0b0081a
Cunha, C. E.
2251baca-c601-4b62-ac1c-51a43bd1e421
D'Andrea, C. B.
4befc380-f47c-49cc-a84e-2e2d2ac14edd
Costa, L. N.Da
b1ed9fd9-b99a-4012-8112-79cba46d8a23
Davis, C.
b98148c3-cb02-4943-91a4-7ae0a23c681e
Doel, P.
00d69910-6075-4a52-9c7b-57e947a3b171
Drlica-Wagner, A.
d47129ae-3b89-4fca-bab4-8b4019b1da05
Eifler, T. F.
0ef93d51-0f94-46cb-b882-a569b9a6b598
Flaugher, B.
cca72cda-37e5-4d1b-a792-c11946615fb5
Fosalba, P.
7309d371-b57b-4fb5-99f2-1dd419e46285
Gaztanaga, E.
3a3f63dd-9666-448c-9ec6-10e53fc0dc1a
Smith, M.
8bdc74e1-a37b-434d-ae75-82763109bf7a

Scolnic, D. and Smith, M. , DES Collaboration (2018) How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets? Astrophysical Journal Letters, 852 (1), [L3]. (doi:10.3847/2041-8213/aa9d82).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of 103Gpc-3 yr-1, consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is z=0.8 for WFIRST, z=0.8 for LSST, and z=0.8 for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.

This record has no associated files available for download.

More information

e-pub ahead of print date: 22 December 2017
Published date: 1 January 2018
Keywords: stars: neutron

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 417502
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/417502
DOI: doi:10.3847/2041-8213/aa9d82
ISSN: 2041-8205
PURE UUID: 694ad919-62a2-4e2a-b22e-a6fe07579771
ORCID for M. Smith: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-3321-1432

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 01 Feb 2018 17:30
Last modified: 12 Nov 2024 02:50

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: D. Scolnic
Author: R. Kessler
Author: D. Brout
Author: P. S. Cowperthwaite
Author: M. Soares-Santos
Author: J. Annis
Author: K. Herner
Author: H. Y. Chen
Author: M. Sako
Author: Z. Doctor
Author: R. E. Butler
Author: A. Palmese
Author: H. T. Diehl
Author: J. Frieman
Author: D. E. Holz
Author: E. Berger
Author: R. Chornock
Author: V. A. Villar
Author: M. Nicholl
Author: R. Biswas
Author: R. Hounsell
Author: R. J. Foley
Author: J. Metzger
Author: A. Rest
Author: J. García-Bellido
Author: A. Möller
Author: P. Nugent
Author: T. M.C. Abbott
Author: F. B. Abdalla
Author: S. Allam
Author: K. Bechtol
Author: A. Benoit-Lévy
Author: E. Bertin
Author: D. Brooks
Author: E. Buckley-Geer
Author: A. Carnero Rosell
Author: M. Carrasco Kind
Author: J. Carretero
Author: F. J. Castander
Author: C. E. Cunha
Author: C. B. D'Andrea
Author: L. N.Da Costa
Author: C. Davis
Author: P. Doel
Author: A. Drlica-Wagner
Author: T. F. Eifler
Author: B. Flaugher
Author: P. Fosalba
Author: E. Gaztanaga
Author: M. Smith ORCID iD
Corporate Author: DES Collaboration

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Library staff additional information
Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×