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How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?

How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?
How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?

The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of 103Gpc-3 yr-1, consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is z=0.8 for WFIRST, z=0.8 for LSST, and z=0.8 for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.

stars: neutron
2041-8205
Scolnic, D.
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Kessler, R.
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Brout, D.
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Soares-Santos, M.
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Annis, J.
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Chen, H. Y.
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Doctor, Z.
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Palmese, A.
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Rest, A.
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García-Bellido, J.
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Benoit-Lévy, A.
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Bertin, E.
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Brooks, D.
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Kind, M. Carrasco
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Costa, L. N.Da
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Davis, C.
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Doel, P.
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Drlica-Wagner, A.
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Eifler, T. F.
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Fosalba, P.
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Gaztanaga, E.
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Smith, M.
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DES Collaboration
Scolnic, D.
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Kessler, R.
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Annis, J.
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Sako, M.
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Doctor, Z.
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Palmese, A.
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Frieman, J.
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Holz, D. E.
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Berger, E.
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Chornock, R.
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Nicholl, M.
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Biswas, R.
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Hounsell, R.
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Foley, R. J.
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Metzger, J.
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Rest, A.
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García-Bellido, J.
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Möller, A.
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Abbott, T. M.C.
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Abdalla, F. B.
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Bertin, E.
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Brooks, D.
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Buckley-Geer, E.
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Rosell, A. Carnero
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Kind, M. Carrasco
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Carretero, J.
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Castander, F. J.
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Cunha, C. E.
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D'Andrea, C. B.
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Costa, L. N.Da
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Davis, C.
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Doel, P.
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Drlica-Wagner, A.
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Eifler, T. F.
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Flaugher, B.
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Fosalba, P.
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Gaztanaga, E.
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Smith, M.
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Scolnic, D., Kessler, R., Brout, D., Cowperthwaite, P. S., Soares-Santos, M., Annis, J., Herner, K., Chen, H. Y., Sako, M., Doctor, Z., Butler, R. E., Palmese, A., Diehl, H. T., Frieman, J., Holz, D. E., Berger, E., Chornock, R., Villar, V. A., Nicholl, M., Biswas, R., Hounsell, R., Foley, R. J., Metzger, J., Rest, A., García-Bellido, J., Möller, A., Nugent, P., Abbott, T. M.C., Abdalla, F. B., Allam, S., Bechtol, K., Benoit-Lévy, A., Bertin, E., Brooks, D., Buckley-Geer, E., Rosell, A. Carnero, Kind, M. Carrasco, Carretero, J., Castander, F. J., Cunha, C. E., D'Andrea, C. B., Costa, L. N.Da, Davis, C., Doel, P., Drlica-Wagner, A., Eifler, T. F., Flaugher, B., Fosalba, P., Gaztanaga, E. and Smith, M. , DES Collaboration (2018) How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets? The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 852 (1). (doi:10.3847/2041-8213/aa9d82).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of 103Gpc-3 yr-1, consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is z=0.8 for WFIRST, z=0.8 for LSST, and z=0.8 for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.

Full text not available from this repository.

More information

e-pub ahead of print date: 22 December 2017
Published date: 1 January 2018
Keywords: stars: neutron

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 417502
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/417502
ISSN: 2041-8205
PURE UUID: 694ad919-62a2-4e2a-b22e-a6fe07579771
ORCID for M. Smith: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-3321-1432

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Date deposited: 01 Feb 2018 17:30
Last modified: 15 Aug 2019 00:33

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Contributors

Author: D. Scolnic
Author: R. Kessler
Author: D. Brout
Author: P. S. Cowperthwaite
Author: M. Soares-Santos
Author: J. Annis
Author: K. Herner
Author: H. Y. Chen
Author: M. Sako
Author: Z. Doctor
Author: R. E. Butler
Author: A. Palmese
Author: H. T. Diehl
Author: J. Frieman
Author: D. E. Holz
Author: E. Berger
Author: R. Chornock
Author: V. A. Villar
Author: M. Nicholl
Author: R. Biswas
Author: R. Hounsell
Author: R. J. Foley
Author: J. Metzger
Author: A. Rest
Author: J. García-Bellido
Author: A. Möller
Author: P. Nugent
Author: T. M.C. Abbott
Author: F. B. Abdalla
Author: S. Allam
Author: K. Bechtol
Author: A. Benoit-Lévy
Author: E. Bertin
Author: D. Brooks
Author: E. Buckley-Geer
Author: A. Carnero Rosell
Author: M. Carrasco Kind
Author: J. Carretero
Author: F. J. Castander
Author: C. E. Cunha
Author: C. B. D'Andrea
Author: L. N.Da Costa
Author: C. Davis
Author: P. Doel
Author: A. Drlica-Wagner
Author: T. F. Eifler
Author: B. Flaugher
Author: P. Fosalba
Author: E. Gaztanaga
Author: M. Smith ORCID iD

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