Construction of regional consumer price indices using small area estimation

Abstract

Consumer Price Indices (CPI) are used in many ways by the government, businesses, and society in general. They can affect interest rates, tax allowances, wages, state benefits, and many other payments. The CPI is a fixed (national) basket index, where a range of goods and services is priced each month, and the expenditure shares on items in the basket are used to weight the price information together. The starting point for a regional price index should be a regional basket of goods and services. In the current poster, we derive regional baskets from the UK Living Costs and Food Survey (LCF), taking the products (COICOP classification) with the largest proportion of expenditures. As the sample size is naturally much smaller for regions, the accuracy of the direct estimates on the basket will be reduced. In order to overcome this problem one possibility - discussed in the poster - is to pool multiple years of LCF data to increase the sample size. Another is to consider small area estimation approaches for the regional basket. Ideally, the small area estimates would be constrained to the overall expenditure total. Therefore, we assess some benchmarking approaches. Since the conceptual framework of CPI-calculation
for the UK and Germany do not differ too much the presented methodology can also be adapted for the calculation of regional CPIs for Germany.

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Identifiers

ORCID for Paul A. Smith: orcid.org/0000-0001-5337-2746

ORCID for Nikolaos Tzavidis: orcid.org/0000-0002-8413-8095

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