Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C:: implications for coastal areas

Abstract

The effectiveness of stringent climate stabilization scenarios for coastal areas in terms of reduction of impacts/adaptation needs and wider policy implications has received little attention. Here we use the Warming Acidification and Sea level Projector Earth systems model to calculate large ensembles of global sea-level rise and ocean pH projections to 2300 for 1.5^oC and 2.0^oC stabilization scenarios, and a reference unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario. The potential consequences of these projections are then considered for global coastal flooding, small islands, deltas, coastal cities and coastal ecology. Under both stabilization scenarios, global-mean ocean pH (and temperature) stabilize within a century. This infers significant ecosystem impacts are avoided, but detailed quantification is lacking, reflecting scientific uncertainty. In contrast, sea-level rise is only slowed and continues to 2300 (and beyond). Hence, while coastal impacts due to sea-level rise are reduced by climate stabilization, potential impacts continue to grow for centuries. Sea-level rise in 2300 under both stabilization scenarios exceeds unmitigated sea-level rise in 2100. Therefore, while the need for adaptation to sea-level rise is reduced by climate stabilization, adaptation remains essential in densely populated and economically important coastal areas. Given the multiple adaptation steps that this will require, an adaptation pathways approach has merits for coastal areas.

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Identifiers

ORCID for Robert J. Nicholls: orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109

ORCID for Sally Brown: orcid.org/0000-0003-1185-1962

ORCID for Philip Goodwin: orcid.org/0000-0002-2575-8948

ORCID for Martin Solan: orcid.org/0000-0001-9924-5574

ORCID for Jasmin A. Godbold: orcid.org/0000-0001-5558-8188

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