The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: Implications for coastal areas

Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: Implications for coastal areas
Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: Implications for coastal areas
The effectiveness of stringent climate stabilisation scenarios for coastal areas in terms of reduction of impacts/adaptation needs and wider policy implications has received little attention. Here we use the Warming Acidification and Sea level Projector Earth systems model to calculate large ensembles of global sea-level rise and ocean pH projections to 2300 for 1.5oC and 2.0oC stabilisation scenarios, and a reference unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario. The potential consequences of these projections are then considered for global coastal flooding, small islands, deltas, coastal cities and coastal ecology. Under both stabilisation scenarios, global-mean ocean pH (and temperature) stabilise within a century. This infers significant ecosystem impacts are avoided, but detailed quantification is lacking, reflecting scientific uncertainty. In contrast, sea-level rise is only slowed and continues to 2300 (and beyond). Hence, while coastal impacts due to sea-level rise are reduced by climate stabilisation, potential impacts continue to grow for centuries. Sea-level rise in 2300 under both stabilisation scenarios exceeds unmitigated sea-level rise in 2100. Therefore, while the need for adaptation to sea-level rise is reduced by climate stabilisation, adaptation remains essential in densely populated and economically important coastal areas. Given the multiple adaptation steps that this will require, an adaptation pathways approach has merits for coastal areas.
sea-level rise, ocean pH, climate mitigation, climate adaptation, coastal impacts
1364-503X
Nicholls, Robert
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Brown, Sally
dd3c5852-78cc-435a-9846-4f3f540f2840
Goodwin, Philip
87dbb154-5c39-473a-8121-c794487ee1fd
Wahl, Thomas
6506794a-1f35-4803-b7f7-98702e57e667
Lowe, Jason
728c4904-22ef-448f-80d9-f319f5b513f0
Solan, Martin
c28b294a-1db6-4677-8eab-bd8d6221fecf
Godbold, Jasmin
df6da569-e7ea-43ca-8a95-a563829fb88a
Haigh, Ivan, David
928be075-377f-4e1c-875b-910c3a480443
Lincke, Daniel
8b279c5b-dd6e-46f4-9c8d-adf83f6ea2cd
Hinkel, Jochen
9c7e8026-955c-42cd-9179-6113efbf1339
Wolff, Claudia
e1c98db0-156d-49db-9d03-710eb3c96ab6
Merkens, Jan-Ludolf
4a431698-ef82-4252-b0de-28aea9197469
Nicholls, Robert
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Brown, Sally
dd3c5852-78cc-435a-9846-4f3f540f2840
Goodwin, Philip
87dbb154-5c39-473a-8121-c794487ee1fd
Wahl, Thomas
6506794a-1f35-4803-b7f7-98702e57e667
Lowe, Jason
728c4904-22ef-448f-80d9-f319f5b513f0
Solan, Martin
c28b294a-1db6-4677-8eab-bd8d6221fecf
Godbold, Jasmin
df6da569-e7ea-43ca-8a95-a563829fb88a
Haigh, Ivan, David
928be075-377f-4e1c-875b-910c3a480443
Lincke, Daniel
8b279c5b-dd6e-46f4-9c8d-adf83f6ea2cd
Hinkel, Jochen
9c7e8026-955c-42cd-9179-6113efbf1339
Wolff, Claudia
e1c98db0-156d-49db-9d03-710eb3c96ab6
Merkens, Jan-Ludolf
4a431698-ef82-4252-b0de-28aea9197469

Nicholls, Robert, Brown, Sally, Goodwin, Philip, Wahl, Thomas, Lowe, Jason, Solan, Martin, Godbold, Jasmin, Haigh, Ivan, David, Lincke, Daniel, Hinkel, Jochen, Wolff, Claudia and Merkens, Jan-Ludolf (2018) Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: Implications for coastal areas. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A, 376 (2119). (doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0448).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The effectiveness of stringent climate stabilisation scenarios for coastal areas in terms of reduction of impacts/adaptation needs and wider policy implications has received little attention. Here we use the Warming Acidification and Sea level Projector Earth systems model to calculate large ensembles of global sea-level rise and ocean pH projections to 2300 for 1.5oC and 2.0oC stabilisation scenarios, and a reference unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario. The potential consequences of these projections are then considered for global coastal flooding, small islands, deltas, coastal cities and coastal ecology. Under both stabilisation scenarios, global-mean ocean pH (and temperature) stabilise within a century. This infers significant ecosystem impacts are avoided, but detailed quantification is lacking, reflecting scientific uncertainty. In contrast, sea-level rise is only slowed and continues to 2300 (and beyond). Hence, while coastal impacts due to sea-level rise are reduced by climate stabilisation, potential impacts continue to grow for centuries. Sea-level rise in 2300 under both stabilisation scenarios exceeds unmitigated sea-level rise in 2100. Therefore, while the need for adaptation to sea-level rise is reduced by climate stabilisation, adaptation remains essential in densely populated and economically important coastal areas. Given the multiple adaptation steps that this will require, an adaptation pathways approach has merits for coastal areas.

Text
Nicholls_etal_Manuscript_FINAL 02 02 18 - Accepted Manuscript
Download (1MB)
Text
nicholls_etal2018 - Version of Record
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
Download (844kB)

More information

Accepted/In Press date: 6 February 2018
e-pub ahead of print date: 4 April 2018
Published date: 13 May 2018
Keywords: sea-level rise, ocean pH, climate mitigation, climate adaptation, coastal impacts

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 418041
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/418041
ISSN: 1364-503X
PURE UUID: 95de81ef-91c6-40a2-8154-cabf9af5fc6c
ORCID for Robert Nicholls: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109
ORCID for Sally Brown: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-1185-1962
ORCID for Martin Solan: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-9924-5574
ORCID for Jasmin Godbold: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-5558-8188

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 21 Feb 2018 17:30
Last modified: 15 Aug 2019 04:21

Export record

Altmetrics

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×