A multi-host agent-based model for a zoonotic, vector-borne disease: a case study on Trypanosomiasis in Eastern Province, Zambia

Alderton, Simon, Macleod, Ewan T., Anderson, Neil E., Schaten, Kathrin, Kuleszo, Joanna, Simuunza, Martin, Welburn, Susan C. and Atkinson, Peter M. (2016) A multi-host agent-based model for a zoonotic, vector-borne disease: a case study on Trypanosomiasis in Eastern Province, Zambia. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. (doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005252).

Abstract

Author Summary African trypanosomiasis is a parasitic disease which affects humans and other animals in 36 sub-Saharan African countries. The disease is transmitted by the tsetse fly, and the human form of the diseases is known as sleeping sickness. Infectious disease transmission has traditionally been modelled using techniques that consider the impact on a population as a whole (e.g. compartmentalised models such as SIR). For diseases such as sleeping sickness, which are often prevalent in sparsely populated rural environments, these models don’t always capture the spatial and demographic heterogeneity within an area, and the varying exposure to the disease that this can cause. This research introduces a novel agent-based model to the field, which incorporates spatial data for the Luangwa Valley case study, along with demographic data for its inhabitants. Tsetse and potential human and animal hosts are modelled at the individual level, allowing each contact and infection to be recorded through time. Through modelling at a fine-scale, we can incorporate detailed mechanisms for tsetse birth, feeding, reproduction and death, while considering what demographics, and which locations, have a heightened risk of disease.

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Contributors

Author: Peter M. Atkinson

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