Election polls - a survey, a Critique, and proposals
Election polls - a survey, a Critique, and proposals
Election polls, also called election surveys, have been under severe criticism because of apparent gaps between their outcomes and election results. In this article, we survey election poll performance in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Israel and discuss the current state of the art. We list the main data collection methods used in election surveys, describe a wide range of analysis techniques that can be applied to such data, and expand on the relatively new application of predictive models used in this context. A special section considers sources of error in election surveys followed by an introduction and a general discussion of an information quality framework for studying them. We conclude with a section on outlooks and proposals that require more research.
Data collection methods, Election polls, Election surveys, Information quality, Predictive analytics, Survey analysis
1-24
Kenett, Ron S.
511a7957-ae55-4c1a-92a1-b56738675812
Pfeffermann, Danny
c7fe07a0-9715-42ce-b90b-1d4f2c2c6ffc
Steinberg, David M.
74144b1e-e616-4ef6-aa92-05833c84ed69
March 2018
Kenett, Ron S.
511a7957-ae55-4c1a-92a1-b56738675812
Pfeffermann, Danny
c7fe07a0-9715-42ce-b90b-1d4f2c2c6ffc
Steinberg, David M.
74144b1e-e616-4ef6-aa92-05833c84ed69
Kenett, Ron S., Pfeffermann, Danny and Steinberg, David M.
(2018)
Election polls - a survey, a Critique, and proposals.
Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, 5, .
(doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-031017-100204).
Abstract
Election polls, also called election surveys, have been under severe criticism because of apparent gaps between their outcomes and election results. In this article, we survey election poll performance in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Israel and discuss the current state of the art. We list the main data collection methods used in election surveys, describe a wide range of analysis techniques that can be applied to such data, and expand on the relatively new application of predictive models used in this context. A special section considers sources of error in election surveys followed by an introduction and a general discussion of an information quality framework for studying them. We conclude with a section on outlooks and proposals that require more research.
Text
Draft Kenett Pfeffermann and Steinberg ARSA 2017
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Accepted/In Press date: 21 October 2017
e-pub ahead of print date: 16 November 2017
Published date: March 2018
Keywords:
Data collection methods, Election polls, Election surveys, Information quality, Predictive analytics, Survey analysis
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 418738
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/418738
ISSN: 2326-8298
PURE UUID: 3372d809-a749-46d3-9cc4-ab69059e70ec
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Date deposited: 21 Mar 2018 17:30
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 19:01
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Author:
Ron S. Kenett
Author:
David M. Steinberg
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