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Disentangling the effects of long-term changes in precipitation and land use on hydrological response in a monsoonal catchment

Disentangling the effects of long-term changes in precipitation and land use on hydrological response in a monsoonal catchment
Disentangling the effects of long-term changes in precipitation and land use on hydrological response in a monsoonal catchment

This research aimed to quantify the effects of precipitation and land use changes on the hydrological response (peak discharge and runoff volume) in the River Kelantan catchment, Malaysia. Two periods were studied, involving the years 1988 (lower hydrological response) and 2004 (greater hydrological response). Rainfall and land use observed for the year 1988 was used in the calibrated and validated model for 1988, but also used in the calibrated 2004 runoff model to simulate the impact of changes in these two factors on runoff generation. For the upstream gauge, differences in peak discharge and runoff volume were affected more by land use change compared to climate-related changes (i.e. precipitation). However, changes in hydrologic response in the downstream catchment were much more associated with precipitation changes. From these findings, we suggest that both land use and climate changes (i.e. precipitation) contributed to changes in hydrologic response in the Kelantan monsoonal catchment, but that for the downstream catchment, which is more prone to flooding, with associated potential socio-economic impacts, precipitation change is the major driver. The results have clear implications for planning and management decision-making.

Climate change, hydrologic modelling, land use, monsoon catchment, peak discharge, runoff volume
S1063-S1077
Adnan, N.A.
53a68526-e1e1-4ec4-a58a-164bb48de769
Atkinson, P.M.
96e96579-56fe-424d-a21c-17b6eed13b0b
Adnan, N.A.
53a68526-e1e1-4ec4-a58a-164bb48de769
Atkinson, P.M.
96e96579-56fe-424d-a21c-17b6eed13b0b

Adnan, N.A. and Atkinson, P.M. (2018) Disentangling the effects of long-term changes in precipitation and land use on hydrological response in a monsoonal catchment. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 11 (S2), S1063-S1077. (doi:10.1111/jfr3.12294).

Record type: Article

Abstract

This research aimed to quantify the effects of precipitation and land use changes on the hydrological response (peak discharge and runoff volume) in the River Kelantan catchment, Malaysia. Two periods were studied, involving the years 1988 (lower hydrological response) and 2004 (greater hydrological response). Rainfall and land use observed for the year 1988 was used in the calibrated and validated model for 1988, but also used in the calibrated 2004 runoff model to simulate the impact of changes in these two factors on runoff generation. For the upstream gauge, differences in peak discharge and runoff volume were affected more by land use change compared to climate-related changes (i.e. precipitation). However, changes in hydrologic response in the downstream catchment were much more associated with precipitation changes. From these findings, we suggest that both land use and climate changes (i.e. precipitation) contributed to changes in hydrologic response in the Kelantan monsoonal catchment, but that for the downstream catchment, which is more prone to flooding, with associated potential socio-economic impacts, precipitation change is the major driver. The results have clear implications for planning and management decision-making.

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More information

e-pub ahead of print date: 13 January 2017
Published date: February 2018
Keywords: Climate change, hydrologic modelling, land use, monsoon catchment, peak discharge, runoff volume

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 418746
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/418746
PURE UUID: 8e42df51-8a10-4fc3-acce-c5b95073426c
ORCID for P.M. Atkinson: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-5489-6880

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 21 Mar 2018 17:30
Last modified: 17 Dec 2019 02:00

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