A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

Abstract

Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and
disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period
projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach
has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy
making and adaptation investment. Themethod analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and
adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the
UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities.
Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit
global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure
at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other
risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communicationtechnology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment.
This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.

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Identifiers

ORCID for Geoff V.R. Watson: orcid.org/0000-0003-3074-5196

ORCID for William Powrie: orcid.org/0000-0002-2271-0826

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